Illinois vs Iowa
Iowa -3.5, Over / Under 56
Lord almighty what to do with the Hawks? They are undefeated this season coming off a loss and those two wins have been their strongest. Following Iowa State they had a gritty road win at Pittsburgh. Following Maryland they crushed Northwestern. Will that continue? Who knows. Taking Iowa does feel safer than picking Illinois who has just four league wins in 29 contests dating back to 2011’s six game losing streak that got Ron Zook fired. As for the O/U, that is another mystery since Iowa’s offense is routinely suspect and their defense can turn in a fine effort one week to giving up 51 unanswered the following. I would hold onto my money in that one if I was a casual gambler but since I am not, I would take the over. I think Iowa will bounce back and put up 35+ points. Meanwhile Illinois will fight hard with Wes Lunt back, have some exotic plays called and snag about 20 points. 38-21 sounds like a reasonable score for this game.
Indiana at Rutgers
RU -7.5, O/U 55
First and foremost, take the under. Without Sudfeld Indiana has averaged just 11.3 ppg. Even if they go over that to a rousing 17 points, does Rutgers have 39 points in them? I don’t think so, especially with how Indiana’s defense has looked at times, yielding just 13 to PSU a week ago. I am smelling a 28-10 final in this one. Rutgers and the under baby, let’s get that double up.
Maryland vs Michigan State
MSU -12, O/U 58
When facing top competition this year Maryland has gone 0-3 and given up an average of 48 points. Even against Iowa, who is far from top talent, they gave up over 400 yards and 31 points. I think Maryland can win this game 15 to maybe as many as 25 times out of 100 and keep it within 2 touchdowns an additional 30 or so times but that still leaves 45 or more simulations where MSU rolls big. I’m leaning towards the over too because the score that popped into my head was 42-21/28. Both easily clear 58 points.
Minnesota vs Ohio State
OSU -12.5, O/U 56.5
Minnesota has a really underrated defense, in fact, they only gave up 30 points to TCU – the Frogs’ lowest output this season. I think the Buckeyes win it by two touchdowns, but I see them pulling away late. 28-14 or 35-21, both are under though. Worst case scenario, it will play out like the TCU game which was a 30-7 final and…you guessed it…also under the o/u. I think we’re onto something here.
Nebraska at Wisconsin
UW -6.5, O/U 57
The offenses are well documented but did you know both have stingy defenses as well, this game looks to be figured out primarily by which D comes up big. NU’s defense is 16th with 19.7 ppg allowed and UW is 3rd with 14.3. Let’s break this down a little more to see how they have stacked up against real teams. We will ignore their FCS teams (this will help NU since they gave up 24 to McNeese St). Of their FBS teams the Huskers got to pad their numbers against these below average offense:
- FAU (103rd in scoring, 7 points against NU)
- Fresno (75th, 19)
- Illinois (80, 14)
- Northwestern (122, 17)
- Rutgers (97, 24)
- Purdue (88, 14).
Their above average offenses (inside top 64) have been Miami and MSU where they went 1-1 and gave up 29 points per. Wisconsin has faced soft offenses in USF (116, 10) as well as the Northwestern, Illinois, Rutgers and Purdue combo. That leaves LSU (58, 28), Bowling Green (48, 17) and Maryland (63, 7) as their above average teams and they went 2-1 with 17 points allowed per. What does all this mean? It means Nebraska’s defense, although very stingy, has played the easier schedule and performed much worse against competent offenses than Wisconsin. Since I am a believer in all things holy defensively, I would invest my money in Wisconsin. The fact that they are playing at home and Ameer Abdullah may not be 100 percent gives me a little more confidence. I think it will be a touchdown game, covering the spread by a nose, but thanks to the defenses we won’t see the scoreboard go crazy. I like the scores 28-21 and 31-24 for some reason…both of which are under.
Northwestern at Notre Dame
ND -17.5, O/U 52.5
Northwestern cannot score to save their lives. I expect a big win for Notre Dame, I’m going to say they drop 42 on the Mildcats and give up no more than 10. That spells Irish and under.
Penn State vs Temple
PSU -11, O/U 39
I’m not sure I have ever seen a over/under set below 40 points. Still going to take it though. Penn State’s defense is 6th in the nation but they cannot score on anybody (112th). Temple is built the same way. 10th in points allowed but 78th in scoring. Temple is not the wretched team of old coming in at 5-4 with wins over bigger name programs Vanderbilt and Uconn as well as a skilled ECU team. They gave the top team in the American, Memphis, all they could handle and after playing four road games this season already, the atmosphere in Beaver Stadium might not have the same affect as it does for some teams. I think this will be a very low scoring battle. 14-10, 17-10. Heck, with an offense as bad as Penn State’s, even an upset could be put on the table. Give me those 11 points.
Lightning Round
Illinois/Iowa – Iowa, Over (degenerate tip)
Indiana/Rutgers – RU, Under
Maryland/Michigan State – MSU, Over
Minnesota/Ohio State – OSU, Under
Nebraska/Wisconsin – UW, Under
Northwestern/Notre Dame – ND, Under
Penn State/Temple – Points, Under
Big Ten and Counting 