After a 12-21 campaign that featured just five league wins in the American, there is no where to go but up for the scrappy Scarlet Knights. The problem for Rutgers is while the roster talent may be improving slowly and steadily, the league that surrounds them is a large leap in skill. Road trips to Nebraska, Minnesota, Michigan and Iowa as well as hosting Ohio State, Michigan State, Wisconsin and Michigan will test the resolve of this club.
The biggest positive for Rutgers in a transition year is they did not lose too much from last year’s squad. J.J. Moore was a nice scorer but his lack of rebounding and size will not be missed. Jerome Seagears and Craig Brown both transferred out to UNLV and Kent State but combined RU is only losing 10 ppg, 4.5 boards and 3 assists a night. Those numbers are replaceable. D’Von Campbell and Wally Judge also graduated like Moore. Campbell was a decent bench piece in his 17 nightly minutes. Surprisingly, Judge seems like the biggest piece to go. His size (6’9″, 250) as well as a decent touch (7.5 ppg) complemented his rebounding acumen (6.2 rpg). Those aren’t bad figures for 22 minutes a game.
So without losing too much there should be at least some excitement with the returning players and there is. It starts with Myles Mack. The leading scorer returns with 14.9 ppg, 2.7 rpg and 4.3 apg in 30.5 minutes a night. While his shooting percentages dipped, his rebounds went up and his assist figures jumped greatly. In a league filled with talented guards, Mack is the best equipped player on RU’s roster to hold his own.
There is a serviceable front line too led by Kadeem Jack. Jack jumped from 5.7 ppg / 4.7 rpg in 2012-2013 to 14.3 / 6.8 a season ago. Junior Etou can also bang inside but an improved perimeter game will have him oscillating between the 3 and the 4 as match-ups demand. Etou averaged 5.3 ppg and 4.6 rpg as a freshman. The rest of the team is a blank slate but plenty of promise for future Rutgers glory.
The first of these pieces is Malick Kone a 6’5″ guard-forward wing combo role player from the bench. His leadership for the second unit as well as his versatility and status as a glue-guy do a lot more for this team than just his numbers. Greg Louis provides extra size as a 6’9″ F-C but multiple sources, including Blue Ribbon, site his fantastic off season. He could be a starter despite averaging fewer than 10 minutes a game last year. Kerwin Okoro missed all but 11 games last season with a knee injury and faces stiff competition to get minutes this season from some of the new faces. He came to Jersey on a hardship waiver from the NCAA for two family deaths. Certainly everyone should be rooting for Okoro to be able to put real life issues behind him a bit and just enjoy some basketball this year. Buried on the bench is Jalen Hyde, Stephen Zurich and Khalil Batie – a 5’9″ walk on with a talent for dunking.
Newcomers to the program offer even more hope for upcoming seasons. Sharp-shooting NYC product Mike Williams has a nice long ball and should be able to see the court this season to get much-needed experience. Shaquielle Doorson is a bull of a kid at 6’11”, 275. He will be a nice defensive addition down low as his offensive touch comes around. D.J. Foreman is another college-ready kid who ranked in the Rivals top 150 overall and top 30 at power forward. He is the most likely candidate to take Okoro’s minutes but could also challenge Etou for playing time as well. Ryan Johnson, a three star recruit at SF, and the tall but raw Ibrahima Diallo are most likely redshirting this season. Jake Dadika who filled up his high school’s stat sheets also enters the fold as a preferred walk on. His scoring ability might get him on the floor some day.
These freshman pale in comparison to the real new face that has Rutgers fans excited. Bishop Daniels shredded his junior college competition last year to the tune of 18 points and 4.6 assists. If he can keep those numbers going alongside Mack and someone else steps up (Williams or Etou most likely) than the backcourt could be one of the pleasant surprises in the league.
Best Case
Talented George Washington and the Barclays Center Classic toughen Rutgers up early. They get road atmosphere tests against Seton Hall and Clemson (ACC challenge) that also prepares the inexperienced bench. The enter league play with at least 8 wins. Williams is lighting it up beyond the ark and Mack/Daniels are great dribbling guards creating and scoring at will. They take advantage of easy/easier league home games against Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, Indiana and Maryland. They also play well on the road picking off Penn State, Indiana and Purdue to go at least 8-10 in league barring upsets. They win no fewer than 16 games but three upsets upsets gets them 19 wins and the Big Ten’s cache boosts them into the NIT, setting up a fun 2015-2016.
Worst Case
Daniels’ numbers fall badly in the face of D-1 competition. Mack is forced to do everything himself. The front court gets nothing apart from Jack and a two-person show is not enough in this league. After a decent non-conference mark, they implode in the Big Ten. They win just a few home games and are woeful away from RAC. A 4-14 league mark and fewer wins that the season before leave the fans wondering where to go in 2015 once Mack graduates.
Prediction
Despite being in a tougher league top-to-bottom than the top-heavy AAC, Rutgers should be improved. Mack and Jack should have a nice inside-outside game. A lot relies on Daniels to be the real deal to give this team three legit players and that is worrying. If they take advantage of the non-con, there are wins to be found in the Big Ten. Just because many publications pick Rutgers to finish last doesn’t mean there is a huge gulf in talent between them and Purdue, Penn State, Northwestern, Maryland or even Indiana. If they catch some breaks they could pass several of these teams. A top-half finish is utterly ridiculous but 7 or so conference wins and flirting with a .500 record overall are on the table.
Big Ten and Counting 