New coach, new system, same results…well, sort of. Yes, 14-19 (6-12) is basically what Bill Carmody did in his finally year but 2013-14 under Chris Collins wasn’t exactly the same. The team’s RPI went up nearly 40 spots, reflecting a much better brand of basketball. They also featured the outstanding Drew Crawford finally playing healthy and making the Orlando Magic up in the association. With some returning faces and highly touted newcomers, Northwestern could push for a mid-pack finish and with the league this deep, they could finally get into the tournament for the first time in program history.
Thankfully the players departing along with Crawford are expendable. Kale Abrahamson was a 15 minute a night bench forward who took his game to Drake (Iowa). Aaron Liberman, the walk-on made famous for wearing a yarmulke during play, also transferred – winding up at Tulane. A third transfer, 7’2″ center Chier Ajou is now at Seton Hall. Nikola Cerina and James Montgomery III graduated. Abrahamson was the only one to see the floor regularly and his numbers are easily replaceable. Outside of Crawford, freeing up this much bench space may actually be a good thing.
The man most equipped to replace Crawford is JerShon Cobb. After eligibility issues sidelined him in 2012-2013, he came back with a nice stat line of 12.2 ppg, 4.8 rpg and 2.3 apg. The rangy 6’5″ guard is a force defensively too. Injuries have plagued him but there is a reason he was a highly touted recruit a few years ago. Tre Demps is another guard standing over six-feet and he chipped in 11, 2.5 and 2.2 last season. A horrid shooting percentage from the floor (.383) is balanced by a nice one beyond the arch (.343). Another key piece is Alex Olah. The seven footer has blossomed in just two season going from 6 points, 4 boards and .9 blocks to 9.1, 5.2 and 1.8. His shooting percentage jumped from .415 to .509 and from the charity stripe he improved from .583 to .680. When Cobb went down with injury, Olah became a man possessed with double-double followed by 20 points. He was a beast down the stretch.
Three more players served roles a year ago, most prominently Dave Sobolewski. Another 6-foot guard was solid his first two years on campus. Last year though as his shooting plummeted so did his minutes. If his touch returns, which reports out of camp suggest, he could range from a starter (his role freshman and sophomore year) to a key bench piece / sixth man (Demps’ role a year ago). Sanjay Lumpkin was a starting forward last year as a freshman but added bulk and experience could mean a more impressive stat line. If not his starter status is still secured by being a good defender and Collins’ glue guy on the floor. Lastly is Nathan Taphorn who is a unique player to match-up against. Despite being 6’7″ he attempts just as many threes as he does field goals. Improvement from his freshman year could see him getting more minutes as a key swingman.
The freshman class is led by four-star Victor Law who was rated 103rd nationally by Rivals. He is a 6’6″ combo forward who will see plenty of minutes this year. Scottie Lindsey, Gavin Skelly and Johnnie Vasser are all three star recruits and should see plenty of action. Bryant McIntosh is an interesting addition. Originally heading to Indiana State, his stock rose during his senior year and moved up to 4 stars according to ESPN (Rivals still has him as a 3-star). Walk-on Nick Segura also joins the team.
An interesting piece to figure out will be Yale transfer Jeremiah Kreisberg. After a solid start to his career, his numbers and minutes were slashed by the Bulldogs. The 6’10” forward is a grad-school transfer but missed all of last year with a back injury. Possibly that contributed to his diminished role with Yale in 2012-2013. Either way he will be an important backup for Olah. Despite having a large backcourt, the size of the frontcourt isn’t as impressive with Lumpkin only standing 6’6″ meaning Taphorn and Kreisberg’s size will be important.
Best Case
Cobb, Demps and Olah all improve giving this team a great core to work with. Sobolewski regains his touch and can be the starting pointguard again, giving the starting five even more experience and talent. The new faces, led by Law, all find their role on this team and make the second unit a real threat. NU opens up 2-0 with a soft schedule before winning the Cancun Challenge and opening November 6-0, after all they are the best team in the field. Outside a trip to Indy to take on Butler and hosting Georgia Tech in the ACC challenge, they could win every non conference game. The 11-2 start (if they drop Tech/Butler) puts them in great shape for March if they can take care of business in the league. Winning at Rutgers, Maryland and Iowa are joined with four home wins to go no worse than 7-11. That would be 18-13 and firmly on the bubble but an upset or two to get to 20 wins and another win in Chicago for the B1G tournament pushes them to their first NCAA trip.
Worst Case
Cobb gets hurt again, Sobolewski is a blackhole and the freshman play like freshman. Despite an easy start to the season they go just 7-6. An erratic league finish like last year’s 6-12 results in just 13 to 15 wins and another losing record.
Prediction
This team is awfully young and that is always a worry but Cobb and Olah are the real deal. If Demps progresses and either Sobolewski or a freshman becomes a viable fourth scoring option and this team can succeed. If worst comes to worse and they drop both the Tech and Butler games as well as lose a game in Cancun and another uh-oh in the non-con…that is still a 9-4 start and putting them well on their way to the NIT. A pedestrian 7-11 (that seems like their lowest possible win total for league play) is 16-15. There is a lot to like about this team. A respectable 16-15 mark is a good baseline but more than likely they get a NIT berth. The difference between the respectable season hovering around .500 and any sort of postseason will be how well the frontcourt holds up. Outside Olah they are either undersized, inexperienced or both. If that unit can gel, the NIT will be a lock.
Big Ten and Counting 