Week 9 Grades

Well this weekend had a little bit of everything.  Blowouts (x3), upsets (x1) and an OT thriller marred by officiating gaffes that (what a surprise) favored Ohio State.  At least the screw jobs by the Big Ten offices used to be subtle.

 

Team of the Week – Wisconsin – A+ – The defense finally put together a great game, the first one in weeks, and the offense’s new commitment to rushing (duh / about time) dominated Maryland.  52-7 pretty much sums it up but for some deeper numbers look no further than the Badger third down defense.  They held the Terps to just 3 of 15 on the crucial down en route to a 175 yard day by the Turtles.  Maryland gashed Iowa for over 200 yards on the ground last week but UW forced the passing game to beat them as they held Maryland to just 46 yards on 28 carries (1.6 average).  Of course the bulk of this came early in the game before Maryland was passing a bunch to try to get back in contact.  Perhaps Nebraska does have a challenger after all…

 

Illinois – A+ – Let’s not call it a career saver just yet and it wasn’t a thing of beauty offensively but the grade is for standing tough and taking down a physical opponent.  Illinois forced three turnovers, none bigger than a fourth quarter scoop and score that gave them the lead.  They withstood a 21 point third quarter that would have crushed this team’s spirits a year ago and lead to a blowout defeat.  Instead they rallied and made big plays – mostly on the defense – to win.  They didn’t have a great day moving the ball but I loved how the passing game was clean on the turnover sheet.  Minnesota has a ball hawking defense and has used that to create big plays this season (i.e. the Michigan game).  The Illini didn’t let that UM strength bite them.

 

Indiana – Idle

 

Iowa – Idle

 

Maryland – Idle…well it felt like it.  They said before the game UM players were excited about seeing the Jump Around.  I guess they missed the memo that there were 3 quarter of actual football before the traditional in-stadium earthquake.  They get a suddenly inspired PSU team next followed by MSU so unless they find a way to pull a Buffalo Bills stunt and circle the wagons, they could be 5-5 (2-5) before we know it.  Need to buckle down.

 

Michigan – F – The offense never gave them a chance.  Unlike Illinois, UM coughed up the ball early and often to dig a big hole.  Michigan had long odds of pulling off the upset, but three turnovers ended any hopes of a miracle.  Running the rock continues to be a problem as those play calls contributed just 61 yards on 26 carries.  It doesn’t look like it because of the final point total (35) and yardage (446) but the Wolverine defense kept this thing close for the first half.  Perhaps they can end the season riding that defense against Maryland, Northwestern and Indiana – all teams that have had their own offensive issues.  Not that it will happen but a few years ago Penn State endured a 4-8 season but found a strong defensive identity midway through the year.  They rode that defense in 2005 to a 11-1 record, Orange Bowl win and a #3 final standing.  Rallying to make a bowl with an improved defense could convince the front office to keep Brady one more year.  After all they are seeing what happens when you pull the trigger too fast and let a coach go down in Arizona.

 

Michigan State – A – Sure I could nitpick about two turnovers but they had this one firmly in hand throughout.  A fourth quarter touchdown makes it look…um…less of a blowout(?) than it really was.  Nice timing for the bye week to get ready for Ohio State.

 

Minnesota – D – Uff da!  What happened?  They dominated this one in every way but three and it cost them.  The first is the turnovers.  Three to Illinois’ one put the upset on the table.  25% on third down kept the ball out of their hands and when you face Illinois’ struggling defense, you want the rock as much as possible.  Finally the passing game never scared Illinois.  Yes Cobb got his numbers, but it wasn’t a breakout affair for him.  Much more of a grind-it-out style because Illinois loaded the box.  Why did they load the box?  Because there was no fear in the UM passing attack.

 

Nebraska – A – They used their bruising OL and all-American talent in Abdullah to run to another victory.  Unlike Minnesota’s passing game Saturday, Tommy Armstrong Jr continues to do just enough to keep opponents honest.  It is this balance that makes them better than Wisconsin and it is their consistency that make them a million times better than Iowa.  Still the class of the West.

 

Northwestern – Idle

 

Ohio State – D+ – I’m not sure why OSU went so conservative in this one.  Only 19 pass attempts for 74 yards versus 57 rushes?  The way they moved the ball at will in the first half and overtime has me shaking my head.  I doubt Urban Meyer makes the same mistake twice.  They clearly took their foot off the gas and it nearly – and maybe if a few missed calls had gone correctly – would have cost them.

 

Penn State – C+ – This team still cannot rush the ball in the slightest (31 carries for 16 yards) but that defense in the second half should give the whole club confidence, especially with the schedule easing up.  Maryland, @ Indiana, Temple, @ Illinois are the next four before the finale against Michigan State.  Needing just two wins to make a bowl they have to like their chances, especially if they can duplicate the play and fan-intensity for the two games in Beaver Stadium.

 

Purdue – Idle

 

Rutgers – D – It was 21-7 at half but the damage was done when Gary Nova went down with injury.  They had no hope in the second half without him.  As we saw with the Ohio State game, their defense is not physical enough yet to go against the top lines in this league.  They were able to hang with PSU and beat Michigan because those are the two weakest OLs in the conference but Nebraska and Ohio State exposed this flaw.  The good thing is with the extension to Kyle Flood he will have the time to correct this the Knights will see brighter days soon enough.

 

Game of the Week – Ohio State at Penn State – Uh, it had controversy, overtime, a big second half comeback and a late rally to tie the game.  Forget game of the week, this will probably hold up as the game of the year.

 

Why Did I Watch This Award – Michigan at Michigan State – Once it became clear that Michigan would not put up any points, all drama quickly faded and the Spartans ground their weak opponent into the dust.

 

Gambling Report Card

Illinois vs Minnesota – Over (55.5), Minnesota (-6, degenerate tip) – Sorry folks, I think we have a stinker week on our hands.  Not only did the Gophers let us down but we didn’t even get any money back as they combined for just 52 points.  Damn.

Maryland at Wisconsin – Points (UW -10.5), Over (57) – Thanks to Maryland’s garbage score late we got an equally garbage cover of the over.  A split looks good this week.

Michigan at Michigan State – MSU (-17), Over (48.5) – Salvaged a split as Sparty won easily by 24 but the two combined for just 46 points.  Poop.

Nebraska vs Rutgers – NU (-19.5), Over (60) – Rutgers’ cosmetic score got us past 60 but resulted in Nebraska winning by 18.  Another close split.

Ohio State at Penn State – OSU (-14), Over (52) – Thankfully overtime got us the split as they combined for 55, thanks to the extra frame.  Sadly my lock of the week and OSU winning by 28+ was way off the mark.

Week Record: 4-6

Season Record: 52-49-2

 

Josh’s Top 25

Actual:

1. Miss State – Survived a pesky (and desperate) Kentucky team on the road no less.  Nice win.

2. Florida State

3. Alabama

4. Auburn – Survived a pesky (and desperate) South Carolina team at home.  Good win.

5. Oregon – Lost in that Cal win is that the Bears are actually a dangerous team.  4th in passing and 11th in scoring and gave UCLA and Arizona all they could handle.  An 18 point road win against a team that will probably go bowling is nothing to sneeze at.

6. Notre Dame

7. Ole Miss

8. Michigan State

9. Georgia

10. TCU

11. Kansas State – The Rodney Dangerfield of college football just shut out a team.  Defense baby!

12. Baylor

13. Ohio State

14. Arizona

15. Arizona State

16. LSU

17. Nebraska

18. Utah

19. Oklahoma

20. West Virginia

21. ECU

22. Clemson

23. Marshall

24. Duke – Duh, had them ranked weeks ago

25. UCLA

 

The Real top 25

1. Miss State

2. Alabama

3. Florida State

4. Auburn

5. Ole Miss – Injuries to the OL cost them this game.  Still have a great defense but lack of depth up front already was a factor in a loss but could become a major issue the deeper we go into the season.

6. Oregon

7. Michigan State

8. Notre Dame – I re-evaluated the Irish’s wins now that we have seen more than half the season unfold and their wins are a combined 22-25.  That deserves a little bit of a slide when you factor in how dominate Oregon and MSU have looked and some of the Irish’s wins have been very tight (UNC and Stanford).

9. Georgia

10. Kansas State

11. TCU

12. ECU – Flipped the Frogs and ECU for two reasons.  1. 82 points 2. Struggled with Connecticut.  Had ECU blown out UConn, the 82 points would not have convinced me.  If TCU had put in a sluggish performance along with the Pirates, the flip would not have occurred.

13. Arizona

14. Nebraska

15. Ohio State – Playing the game we did with Notre Dame, their wins are a combined 23-23 and the Va Tech loss gets uglier and uglier.

16. Baylor

17. Oklahoma

18. Clemson

19. Duke

20. Louisville

21. LSU – Well the voters have them 16th and I have them 21st so we’ll see who is closer to having a read on this team when they play Alabama November 8th.

22. UCLA

23. Marshall

24. Utah – Fine Utes, you win.

25. West Virginia / Georgia Southern / Colorado State / Wisconsin – All have very good arguments to make.  WVU has 4 Big 12 wins and beat Maryland.  GSU’s two losses were slim margins to ACC teams have have handled everyone else with ease.  CSU has the best record of this group, took down Colorado and Boston College with their lone loss on the Smurf Turf and UW has two single-score losses to power league teams (one of which is ranked LSU) and just killed Maryland who WVU barely beat.  I am inclined to go with West Virginia on the strength of schedule and surprisingly frisky defense.  Throwout their two losses (amazing Alabama and talented Oklahoma), that unit is only giving up 20 points a game and with Clint Trickett, that is a pretty easy number to pass.

 

Why no Arizona State love?  Their wins are a combined 19-28 and their two big ones – USC and Stanford – are no longer ranked.  Their lone loss was 62-27 to a very shaky UCLA team.  If they can survive the Utah and Notre Dame gauntlet, I would love to move them up.  Been to their stadium and campus.  They have great fans and a fun atmosphere so I’m not a Sparky hater, I just don’t think their resume justifies a ranking yet.