Illinois vs Minnesota
UM -6.0, Over / Under 55.5
After narrow victories against Northwestern and Purdue, I’m not sure Minnesota can be counted on against the spread anymore. Interestingly enough, Illinois put up 28 points on Wisconsin and the Boilermakers gashed the Gophers for 38. I think the over is a pretty safe bet. Degenerates, self included, would probably take the Gophers to cover. A touchdown win over Illinois’ hapless defense doesn’t sound too difficult to manage.
Maryland at Wisconsin
UW -10.5, O/U 57
Which Wisconsin team will show up? The one that couldn’t score against Northwestern or the one that dropped 38 with ease on Illinois? The fact that Wisconsin had the bye week to study the Terps and the Iowa tape should give Wisconsin’s coaches a lot to work with has me leaning towards my school for the win, but not necessarily the cover. I see one of two out comes, either Wisconsin gets their act together and runs wild on Maryland’s suspect rush defense en route to a big victory or Maryland wins tight. If this was played 100 times, I think the Badgers win 55 times and of those 55, roughly half is a win by more than 10.5 points. That leaves about 70 times where Maryland either wins or covers in a loss. 70% in my mind sounds good! Go Red, but I’m taking the points. The over also looks good. I mean UW gave up 28 to Illinois for crying out loud.
Michigan at Michigan State
MSU -17, O/U 48.5
How many times have we bet MSU and the over? Every week. How many times have we lost both bets? Just once I believe. This is a recipe for at least a split but more often than not a double up. I just don’t see Michigan’s offense being able to keep this thing close and a sub 50 over/under really isn’t that hard to come up with. Let’s keep the formula going.
Nebraska vs Rutgers
NU -19.5, O/U 60
I think Rutgers can keep this game close 30-35 times out of a hundred and even win about 10-15 times. That leaves a lot of Husker blowouts as the outcome. The fact that Nebraska appears to be peaking at the right time and Rutgers is coming off a humiliating loss has me liking the Huskers big. I think the over is doable too since NU could hit the 50 plateau single-handedly.
Ohio State at Penn State
OSU -14, O/U 52
Not a good time to bet against the Bucks. 14 points also feel really low. The home team always gets 3 so Vegas is basically saying on a neutral site, OSU would win by 17. I think they win by a lot more than 17, 14, whatever you pick. I think the spread could be 27 and they would cover. I expect them to win by four touchdowns, at least. I think they go over too since OSU will be good for 42 points, but probably more. I am giving this my lock of the week. Note: I think I’ve only done two locks of the week so don’t read anything into that.
Lightning Round
Illinois/Minnesota – Over, UM (degenerate tip)
Maryland/Wisconsin – Points, Over
Michigan/Michigan State – MSU, Over
Nebraska/Rutgers – NU, Over
Ohio State/Penn State – OSU, Over
Big Ten and Counting 