Indiana vs Michigan State
MSU -15.5, Over / Under 59.5
With Nate Sudfeld out it is difficult to see the Hoosiers finding a way to score many points. MSU should cover easily. As for the O/U, Indiana’s defense is pathetic and Tevin Coleman is fantastic. Even without a passing game I think Coleman can score twice, that means MSU only needs 46 points to get us the over. If Iowa can score 45 against ’em…
Iowa at Maryland
UM -5, O/U 48
I can see this game going one of two ways, a gritty (okay, ugly) win for Iowa by 7 or less OR Maryland shreds Iowa and wins by 21+. This game feels like a stay away but if pressed I would go with Iowa. Maryland has only played two teams with winning records and lost both of them – one in a blow out. Their defense is one of the worst in the league and I don’t like betting on teams with bad defenses. No clue what the total score would be and since the game has the look and feel of a stay away, let’s not invest too much money in this one.
Minnesota vs Purdue
UM -14, O/U 48.5
Purdue has been playing a lot better ball and while I believe they are capable of pulling off an upset, the smart money is still with Gophers. The game is at home and they appear to be ready for a title run and yadda yadda yadda. HOWEVER, that smart money would be if the spread was in the 7 to 10 range. I’m not sure the Gopher offense is electric enough to really run away from anybody. I could see Purdue hanging tough and losing by 10 or scoring very late for a garbage cover. Take the points. The under also feels safe based on how strong Minnesota’s defense is. I think this game could be 21-17.
Nebraska at Northwestern
Huskers -6.5, O/U 54
Northwestern had their rival NU program in a hole last year but a Hail Mary gave the Huskers the win. I’m sure that led to some money coming in for Northwestern and that is why the line has dropped. Here’s the thing though, Nebraska seems a lot more polished than last year’s team (staying healthy has played a big part in that) and while Northwestern has played a lot better the last three weeks, they haven’t faced a complete team like Nebraska either. Their wins are against flawed UW and PSU teams and Minnesota is a grinder team. Nebraska has enough juice from the passing game to have the balance the Badgers lacked. Nebraska will win by a touchdown. No clue on what the score will be so let’s keep that bet in our pocket.
Ohio State vs Rutgers
OSU -21.5, O/U 63
If this game were played a hundred times, I would give Rutgers 10 wins. In the 90 Buckeye wins, I would say at least 30 of them are blowouts but that feels low. The bottom line is we’ve seen this song and dance before with Ohio State. Big spread, team comes in with the chip on their shoulders plays well but before you know it the Buckeyes have one of those explosive quarters. From a gambling perspective it makes sense to put money on Ohio State. I don’t know why but I’m not crazy about the over. I’m thinking this game ends in the 50s. 35-10 in the low range to 42-17 in a little higher? I’m not convinced Rutgers will score enough, especially if Gary Nova has one of his turnover-prone days against the athletic Buckeye defense.
All other teams are either idle or the games are off.
Lightning Round
Indiana/Michigan State – MSU, Over
Iowa/Maryland – Stay Away, Iowa (degenerate tip)
Minnesota/Purdue – Points, Under
Nebraska/Northwestern – Neb
Ohio State/Rutgers – OSU, Under
Big Ten and Counting 