Illinois vs Purdue
UI -9, Over / Under 57
This game reeks of STAY AWAY! Last year’s match up was a 20-16 pillow fight but Illinois has shown a little improvement this year. I’m not confident they win by more than a touchdown. I think I’ll hold off on burning money on that spread. The O/U in inticing though. Purdue averages almost 24 points a game (closer to 14 against competent teams) and gives up 28 per. Illinois scores 29 and gives up 35. To me it is more likely that the offenses get on track agaisnt the inept foe, especially Illinois, than the defenses buckle down. Take the over.
Indiana vs North Texas
IU -13.5, O/U 58.5
North Texas’ bread and butter last year was defense but so far this season that d has let them down against quality oponents. Texas dropped 38 on ’em and Louisiana Tech (okay, basked on UNT’s joke schedule La Tech is quality) racked up 42 points. Indiana followed a horrible loss (Bowling Green) with a terrific win (Missouri). They are now coming off another bad loss (smoked at home by Maryland) and know that this game is critical for their bowl hopes. They should be able to win by two touchdowns. I also think they get close enough to that over by themselves that UNT doesn’t have to contribute all that much. Double down on this one.
Maryland vs Ohio State
OSU -8.5, O/U 59
First of all, that over/under looks poised to be demolished. Maryland scores over 35 a game and Ohio State scores over 42 a game. The defenses are ranked 32nd (Maryland 19.8 allowed) and 33rd (OSU 20.0 allowed) but against good teams they have cleared that easily. The Terps gave up 40 to West Virginia and Ohio State gave up 28 to Cinci and Virginia Tech hit 28 offensive points with a pick-six to hit 35. I expect this game to be in the high 20s at least, maybe 35-28 final or there abouts. As for the spread, I think this game will be close but I was envisioning something inside two touchdowns. It feels like OSU prevails by about 10 in a tough game. I hesitantly double down in this game as well – hmm, that seems like a degenerate tip since the general public doesn’t want to hesitantly bet.
Michigan at Rutgers
RU -2, O/U 46.5
Michigan has looked awful, no way to sugar coat it. They have had all week to hear about how awful they are and how Hoke is about to get canned. Sometimes teams rally to that. Michigan’s defense isn’t god-awful either and Rutgers has struggled with competent defenses (see Penn State game). I’m going to take the points since I think UM rallies and finds a way to win an ugly one. I don’t think this springboards them for the season, but I think after one week of hell the players are anxious to just play a game. That over is perfectly safe. I expect this to play out like the PSU game. Maybe even the same score, 13-10.
Michigan State vs Nebraska
MSU -7, O/U 60
I love this MSU team and I think they learned from the Oregon collapse. Nebraska’s lack of a reliable passing threat finally bites them in a big game. MSU covers but both defenses give up some points. Did you know MSU is third in the nation at 50.3 points per games?! They go over…barely.
Northwestern vs Wisconsin
UW -8, O/U 47.5
Despite some slow starts, I think league play focuses the Badgers and they get back to blowing teams out. Northwestern faced a do-or-die game for their bowl hopes agaisnt PSU and got it done. The problem is they took advantage of PSU’s biggest flaws – no OL and lack of running game. Those are UW’s strengths. Despite putting them on a little upset watch yesterday, I think Wisconsin wins this one with ease. Since I also think UW can put at least 42 on the board, I’ll take the over.
All other teams are either idle or the games are off.
Lightning Round
Illinois/Purdue – Over
Indiana/North Texas – Indiana, Over
Maryaland/Ohio State – Over, OSU (degenerate tip)
Michigan/Rutgers – Points, Under
Michigan State/Nebraska – MSU, Over
Northwestern/Wisconsin – UW, Over
Big Ten and Counting 