Illinois vs Texas State
UI -13.5, Over / Under 62
The Illini two touchdown favorites? Their two wins have been by eight and eleven. The bigger of the two margins was against a FCS club so that doesn’t bode well. San Marcos isn’t a scary team though. They lost their lone FBS game this year by 14 and in last year’s 6-6 campaign when they lost they tended to lose big. That spread just worries me since this is the Illini we are talking about. Safer just take the over. Illinois’ offense looked serviceable until the Washington blowout and against Navy, Texas State put up 21. I think sixties is possible. I don’t love either bet but like a degenerate I have to put my money on something.
Indiana at Missouri
Mizzou -13.5, O/U 70.5
This gets my huh?! award for the week – how is Missouri not a bigger favorite at home against the Hoosiers? Give me the Tigers. I’ll take the under too. Missouri is going to score a million points on Indiana but I’m not as sure about Indiana’s offense putting up too much on a unit giving up just 17.3 ppg. Remember Indiana only mustered 28 points against Indiana State. I’m smelling something like 42-21.
Iowa at Pittsburgh
Pitt -7, O/U 46.5
My gut tells me Pitt wins this big. Here’s the thing though Iowa’s offense is awful but the defense is has shown potential. If it is a route, it would be something like 21-3. That looks like a recipe for taking the home favorite and the under.
Maryland at Syracuse
SU -1, O/U 53.5
Incredibly Maryland was a slight favorite just yesterday when I previewed the week. Money clearly went in for Syracuse to win the game at home and the bookmakers adjusted. I don’t have a good read on either team so I’ll let that spread sit but I do know this…Maryland’s defense doesn’t exactly instill much confidence and the Orange are scoring in in the 30s. Assuming this is a track meet to 30 and is as tight as everyone assumes it will be, that over-under doesn’t stand a chance. Take the over.
Michigan vs Utah
UM -4, O/U 56.5
Utah is essentially an unknown. The Utes are 2-0 but Idaho State and Fresno provide us zero information. Scoring 56 and 59 points is impressive and the case could be made that against the only decent team they played Michigan gave up 31 points – this of course relies on Utah being decent, which circular logic will bring us back to them being an unknown. With that in mind, I think I’ll stay away from that Over/Under. As for the spread, If Michigan can’t hold home-serve and win by a touchdown against a team that went 5-7 a year ago, hasn’t won a road game against a power-5 team since 2011 and will have traveled halfway across the nation (see USC as why this matters) then I guess we don’t deserve to win any money.
Michigan State vs Eastern Michigan
MSU -45.5, O/U 52
So that spread and over under basically relies on MSU winning this 56-0. I tend to judge any spreads that big as insane and automatically bet the underdog. EMU is a special case though. They lost to Florida 65-0. Is this MSU team not better than the Gators? The Eagles are riding a 5-22 mark into this game (just 2 of those 5 wins are against FBS members). Also when a coach says they aren’t going to run up the score and just play football like Dantonio did earlier this week seems like a warning that they are about to drop the hammer. Can’t believe I’m going to advise this but take Sparty and the over. C’mon blowout!
Minnesota vs San Jose State
UM -9, O/U 51.5
Minnesota doesn’t inspire too much confidence after derailing a week ago. Worse, from a gambling prospective, they failed to cover against Middle Tennessee State the last time they were favored by more than a TD. If anything, take that under. Gopher defense, even with the ugly TCU game, has been pretty stingy. SJSU on the other hand struggled to score against Auburn. Even if Minnesota’s defense is two touchdown’s worse than Auburn’s, that would be 28 points for SJSU. Do you trust Minnesota to put up the other 24 in that scenario? I sure don’t. A more likely outcome for this game would be 24-17 or 31-10 if UM really dominates.
Nebraska vs Miami
NU -7.5, O/U 56
Louisville had no trouble putting 31 up on Miami to open the season and the Huskers have a more explosive offense than them. I’m thinking this game will be somewhere in the neighborhood of 35-28, give or take a few points. That gets us the over. A two score Nebraska win seems more likely than a really, really tight one. Not for nothing, the last time Miami ventured to the Midwest in a big non-con game they were crushed 52-17 by Kansas State in 2012. A savvy degenerate would go for the double-up and take Nebraska to win by 8 or more.
Penn State vs Massachusettes
PSU -27, O/U 47.5
Some bookmakers had this game off the sheet, but I did find this spread. UMass has given up over 30 points so I expect this to be the cure to jump-start that Penn State offense. UMass also put up some point against Vanderbilt and Colorado so do we have enough to put the over at risk? I don’t think so. By PSU’s standards a breakout offensive day would only yield 35 points (season high is 26). Do the Minutemen get the other 13 points? As for the spread my concern in games like this is if Penn State jumps out to a big lead, say 35-0 and pulls the starters, it would very easy to score a garbage score or two and spoils a 4 touchdown spread. This game feel like a stay away for the casual gambler but the points feels safer and the really sick souls should probably bet the under.
Rutgers at Navy
Navy -6.5, O/U 53.5
Navy’s offense has been pretty reliable in wins – hitting over 30 in the two victories but they were held to 17 against Ohio State and Rutgers’ defense looked good a week ago. This has me liking the under since the Scarlet Knight offense isn’t exactly a juggernaut. I’m thinking this game will be decided in the low to mid 20s. As for Navy winning by a touchdown, tough to see that. I think Rutgers has a good shot at the upset and even if Navy wins, it seems like they always have dramatic affairs. I’ll play it safe and only bet the under.
Wisconsin vs Bowling Green
UW -27, O/U 63.5
Bowling Green is capable of sticking around for at least the first half and possibly longer. Even if Wisconsin pulls away late, I have a hard time seeing them get the Falcons by four-touchdowns. This is super obvious so feel free to be upset that I’m treating you like a second grader…but need I remind you 24 points is a massive blowout but doesn’t cover the game? As for that O/U, Wisconsin’s offense wasn’t exactly a thing of beauty in their opening two games yielding just 24 and 37 (against a bad FCS team). Bowling Green has been all over the map with their scores (31, 48, 45 and giving up 59, 7, 42). When things are that chaotic I like to hold onto my cash. Feels like the truly free-wheeling degenerate should take the under though.
All other teams are either idle or the games are off.
Lightning Round
Illinois/Texas State – Over
Indiana/Missouri – Mizzou, Under
Iowa/Pitt – Pitt, Under
Maryland/Syracuse – Over
Michigan/Utah – Michigan
Michigan State/Eastern Michigan – MSU, Over
Minnesota/San Jose State – Under
Nebraska/Miami – Nebraska, Over
Penn State/UMass – Points (Degenerate tip, Under)
Rutgers/Navy – Under
Wisconsin/Bowling Green – Points (Degenerate tip, Under)
Big Ten and Counting 