Illinois vs Western Kentucky
UI -5, Over/Under 67
I have WKU pulling the upset so give me the points. The O/U looks high to me. WKU put up 59 their opening week but Illinois struggled to just 28 points against a FCS club. In my bc/wc/prediction I have WKU winning 38-28 for a total of 66. That’s a little too close for comfort. Stay away from the O/U.
Iowa vs Ball State
UI -17, O/U 52
In my preseason write up for the Hawks I had them winning this by 17 exactly (31-14) but after the weak opening impression I have a feeling a lot of money will be going with Ball State. Here’s the thing, Ball State wasn’t that impressive either, winning just 30-10 against FCS Colgate. Against a pair of FCS teams last week they combined for 61 total points. I’d stay away from the spread but bet the over. Iowa’s offense should be sharper and their defense was not very impressive. I have a feeling this game will be higher scoring than my pre-season prediction after seeing Iowa struggle with Northern Iowa’s offense.
Maryland at South Florida
UM -13.5, O/U 53.5
Maryland hung half a hundred on James Madison and USF gave up 31 points to a FCS club. This is going to go over, way over. Easy money there. In my preseason I tempered expectations and had the Terps winning 31-14. Even without the knowledge gained from week one I love Maryland being able to cover this spread against a lousy Bulls team. I would double this up, take the favorite and the over.
Michigan at Notre Dame
ND -4, O/U 56
I’m picking the Wolverines to pull off the upset. These teams combined for a hundred points last week. Are the defenses good enough to nearly half that? Doubling down with this game and taking the points and the over.
Michigan State at Oregon
UO -12.5, O/U 56.5
I’m rooting for MSU but I’m very worried. This is a huge test for a new-look defense. In the preseason I had the Ducks winning by three touchdowns (38-17) which combines for 55 points. I would take Oregon to cover but I’m not comfortable with having a top 10 team lose by so much now that I’ve seen MSU in action. Personally, I’d stay away and put my money on something more sure.
Minnesota vs Middle Tennessee State
UM -16, O/U 50.5
I have this game a dogfight. In my preseason preview I had the Gophers only winning by 10 (20-10). After seeing them start slowly the opening week and MTSU drop 61 points on their opponent, I am even more confident in this being a tight affair. I’ll take the points in a Minnesota win. I’m a little worried about that over-under though. Gopher defense was strong for three quarters until the backups gave up some points. I’m inclined to take the under but that part of the game feels like a stay away.
Northwestern vs Northern Illinois
NU -8 , O/U 58.5
This is a classic stay away for me. Northwestern is either really bad or will come out angry after the way they looked against Cal. Too many x factors for me and my hard-earned cash. Since we are all degenerate gamblers looking for some good any bets I would say the Wildcats cover. In their furious comeback we saw the potential for explosiveness. Northern put up 55 points a week ago and Northwestern had 24. If a Big Ten defense is capable of halving that, we are sitting at 28 points already putting the over in great shape.
Ohio State vs Virginia Tech
OSU -11, O/U 47
Back in my preview I had OSU with no troubles in this one, winning 28-7. That score might be a little lower without Braxton Miller, but only by a little which will easily cover. I don’t think Tech has the offense to help the Buckeyes in order to hit the over. Give me the Bucks and take the under, thank you very much.
Penn State vs Akron
PSU -14.5, O/U 51
Akron showed some signs of life a year ago going 5-7 and nearly knocking off Michigan. The first signs of a decent program after years of struggles. I think the Zips can make this interesting for a half, perhaps even three quarters. In the preseason I had the Nittany Lion’s winning by 14, a figure I don’t think is half bad. I’ll take the points. Despite a lot of yards, PSU only had 26 points last week and Akron had 41 against a FCS cupcake. The under is very, very tempting.
Purdue vs Central Michigan
PU -4, O/U 54.5
Another one that I would avoid like the plague. Purdue gave up a ton of points (and scored a ton) against a bad Western Michigan team. Central is a pretty consistent MAC performer and an upset is in play – but they struggled mightily with FCS Chattanooga. I have Purdue winning by only a field goal but that spread leaves me very nervous, I don’t know what we’ll get from either team. The over feels safe though. Purdue put up 43 points against WMU and their defense was shredded, so CMU should improve upon last week’s lackluster 20 point effort. Bet the over, stay way from the spread.
All other teams are either idle or the games are off.
Lightning Round:
Illinois/WKU – Points
Iowa/Ball State – Over
Maryland/USF – Maryland, Over
Michigan/Notre Dame – Michigan, Over
Michigan State/Oregon – Stay Away (degenerate tip – Oregon)
Minnesota/Middle Tennessee State – Points
Northwestern/Northern Illinois – Stay Way (degenerate tip – Over)
Ohio State/Virginia Tech – OSU, Under
Penn State/Akron – Points, Under is tempting
Purdue/Central Michigan – Over
Big Ten and Counting 