Best Cast / Worst Case / Prediction – Michigan State

Defending league and Rose Bowl champ Michigan State looks to pick up right where they left off.  Why not, they return a lot of talent, are well coached and their recruiting has improved with the success they have enjoyed.  Connor Cook returns as a starter and boasts a 9-0 league mark.  Not a bad place to start.  Backfield mate Jeremy Langford may not get the clippings of Ameer Abdullah receives and Wisconsin is known for their running game but Langford is just as good.  He had over 1400 yards a season ago and racked up nearly 5 per carry.  WR Bennie Fowler may be gone and while he had a nice season and decent TD total, Tony Lippett, who is back, was not too far behind Fowler.

This maybe the best group of skill positions players returning for quite some time for MSU but overall the offense still has a couple question marks.  Three starters from the OL are gone could tank the season.  This is where the improved program depth should help smooth over this speed bump.

Defensively they lost two tackles, two linebackers and two players from the secondary.  Many were all big ten, all american or award winners.  You would expect that from the third best scoring d and number two total defense in the nation.  The good thing is that means 5 players are returning but the real reason we can trust the defense is the staff.

Mark Dantonio’s career as a coach has been on that side of the ball and his DC, and freshly won assistant COY winner, Pat Narduzzi are probably the best in the business of cooking things up on that side of the ball.  Will they slide a bit – sure, having top 10 defenses in back to back years is difficult even with all the starters back – but will they suddenly fall off and slip out of the top 30?  No.  Fans can rely on this unit, even with the loss of starpower.

 

2014 Schedule

 

Jacksonville State

Best Case – Hats off to MSU, this is their first FCS team since 2011.  That’s better than most Big Ten schools can say.  1-0

Worst Case – JSU won 11 games last year but MSU is a legit final four contender.  1-0

Prediction – W, 42-10, 1-0

 

At Oregon

Best Case – MSU took down OSU and Indiana last year with pretty good margins of victory.  Why does this matter?  Because Miller can run like Mariotta and Indiana can pass like Oregon.  Plus they beat Stanford, so if you can beat the team that beat the team, that transfers over, right?  2-0

Worst Case – People love to rip UO’s defense but it has been pretty good and was top 20 last season.  The new starters up front can’t hold on.  1-1

Prediction – MSU took a little time to pick up some steam last year with flat games against Western Michigan, USF and the loss to Notre Dame.  A lot of that had to do with uncertainty at quarterback but while that is settled there is uncertainty at other positions.  I think MSU drops the game but is better for it in the long run as it will show them where they need to improve in order to defend the league crown.  L, 38-17, 1-1

 

Eastern Michigan

Best Case – The doormat went 2-10 last year and was 114th in scoring to 124th in points allowed per.  Yikes.  3-0

Worst Case – An injury or two?  2-1

Prediction – W, 49-7, 2-1

 

Wyoming

Best Case – Pokes lost a lot of talent last year and were a sieve defensively.  4-0

Worst Case – I know Nebraska struggled with them in the opener a year ago but this team couldn’t even get to .500 in league play a year ago.  3-1

Prediction – Lots of talent gone from last year’s 5-7 team.  That doesn’t bode well for a trip to East Lansing.  W, 42-13, 3-1

 

Nebraska

Best Case – This was a blowout last year and Nebraska enters with just as many questions, maybe more, than MSU.  Hometeam – lock it in.  5-0

Worst Case – I really don’t think there has been enough improvement in Nebraska’s roster to swing this one.  Spartans find a way.  4-1

Prediction – The defense starts to find itself by the mid point of the year and outside Ameer Abdullah, there isn’t a whole lot to fawn over for Nebraska’s offense.  W, 31-13, 4-1 (1-0)

 

At Purdue

Best Case – Purdue is as awful as last year and MSU can rest all their starters in the second half.  6-0

Worst Case – Connor Cook gets hurt.  Too much talent on one side of the field.  5-1

Prediction – Purdue’s rapid fall since the retirement of Joe Tiller is stunning.  I always hated playing this team back in the day.  W, 42-17, 5-1 (2-0)

 

At Indiana

Best Case – IU’s offense isn’t what it’s cracked up to be and the Spartans enjoy an easy cakewalk on the road.  7-0

Worst Case – IU can keep up, maybe put a scare in them.  I just have a hard time seeing an upset in this one.  6-1

Prediction – MSU’s offense should be vastly improved – if the line gets up to speed – and IU’s problems under Kevin Wilson have always been on the defensive side of things.  W, 28-10, 6-1 (3-0)

 

Michigan

Best Case – MSU starts the season 8th in the nation.  I wonder where an 8-0 start would put them.  8-0

Worst Case – While the new look D and OL are talented enough against mid level and lower teams, they come up short against the more talented squads.  6-2

Prediction – I like MSU’s personnel a bit more and playing at home gives them the edge in what looks like your classic coin-flip rivalry game.  W, 24-21, 7-1 (4-0)

 

Ohio State

Best Case – OSU’s DL is probably the best in the league but their secondary has a few questions in the offseason.  MSU’s new OL holds up long enough to given Cook enough time to exploit a potential weakness.  9-0

Worst Case – MSU’s offense gets shut down by the Bucks as Ohio State scores a massive road win.  6-3

Prediction – This comes down to my faith in the Dantonio/Narduzzi brain trust.  The MSU defense slows Ohio State enough in what could be the game of the year.  W, 28-24 (OT maybe?), 8-1 (5-0)

 

At Maryland

Best Case – Top to bottom talent advantage for the Green and White.  10-0

Worst Case – Mayland has a chance to be frisky this year and can give teams a dogfight but MSU still manages to slip by.  7-3

Prediction – MSU avoids the hangover from whatever result happens in the massive OSU tilt and takes care of business.  W, 28-10, 9-1 (6-0)

 

Rutgers

Best Case – The number one team in the nation, your Michigan State Spartans.  11-0

Worst Case – No chance the overwhelmed Knights win this.  8-3

Prediction – A lot to a little.  W, 49-7, 10-1 (7-0)

 

At Penn State

Best Case – Despite being a tough road environment, MSU is humming while Penn State is struggling under a new regime.  12-0

Worst Case – Same reasoning as the Michigan game.  MSU is good, just not good enough to crack the nut of top-level league opponents this year with the new faces.  8-4

Prediction – Picking PSU late in a season with the depleted roster (thanks NCAA) is a risky notion.  Sparty sews up the east in front of a hostile crowd.  W, 28-17, 11-1 (8-0)

 

Final Notes

While not as sure a thing as Ohio State, the ceiling feels higher for this team if all the new pieces fit.  The reason the ceiling is higher is the returning talent is a smidge better (quarterback might favor OSU) and the coaching staff at MSU is top to bottom better.  With the ceiling argument firmly established, I’ll take MSU to make a repeat visit to Indianapolis.