Best Case / Worst Case / Prediction – Wisconsin

Wisconsin’s debut season for Gary Anderson was successful by any measurement yet a late season swoon took a bit of the shine off.  The Badgers started 3-2 but ripped off six straight.  At 9-2 they lost to Penn State.  Granted the division title had already been lost, but it was senior day against a mediocre club.  A chance to finish strong was also missed in a tepid bowl performance against South Carolina.  At 9-4 it felt the team under achieved, despite a brand new coach.

Offensively the Badgers look very strong rushing the ball thanks to an experienced OL and Melvin Gordon returning.  The passing attack though…that remains a mystery.  Joel Stave had stretches of hot and cold play, as you would expect from a first year starter, but they finished just 96th in passing despite having TE Jacob Peterson and WR Jared Abbrederis catching balls.  Worse, the third leading receiver was James White, a now departed running back.  Alex Ericson and Jordan Fredrick have seen the field in their career, are they now ready to lead?

The defense also has a number of unknowns.  Several key pieces of the front seven, including outstanding linebacker Chris Borland, are no longer in Madison.  The bulk of the secondary returns, led by Sojourn Shelton.  Shelton gave up the big play at times but his aggressive edge as a freshman endeared him to a lot of fans.  His instincts are there, now he just needs to refine his game a bit.

The bottom line is if the passing game can take a step forward and the defensive front seven gels, this is the team to beat out west.  They showed last year they can hang with anybody – biggest loss was the 10 point decision in the bowl – and that was with the usual feeling out process with a new coach.  The flip side of course is the Big Ten is shaping up for its best season in several years.  If they don’t get those issues resolved Nebraska, Iowa and maybe even a sleeper like Northwestern or Minnesota could upset the apple cart.

 

2014 Schedule

 

LSU (Houston Texas)

Best Case – LSU was decimated by the NFL draft and even with those players Iowa gave them a real push in the bowl last year.  1-0

Worst Case – This is about as neutral as playing USC in San Diego.  Plus the recruiting LSU enjoys means the shelves will be restocked.  0-1

Prediction – LSU lost so much talent and that is impossible to ignore.  I don’t love this pick but it feel like the correct one.  W, 24-21, 1-0

 

Western Illinois

Best Case – A 4-8 FCS team?  2-0

Worst Case – Melvin Gordon’s knee explodes.  1-1

Prediction – Even if they are hungover from the huge victory a week before and start slow, Badgers would find a way.  W, 42-10, 2-0

 

Bowling Green

Best Case – Bowling Green struggled with Indiana last year, getting whalloped 42-10.  3-0

Worst Case – BGSU had a top 5 defense a year ago but went 0-3 against power conference teams.  Two of those were close, but I still like Wisconsin’s chances.  2-1

Prediction – W, 38-14, 3-0

 

South Florida

Best Case – USF was the worst AQ conference team a year ago.  Sure Purdue went oh-for in their league but USF was dreadful in the American.  4-0

Worst Case – Is late September too cold for a bunch of Floridians?  Probably.  3-1

Prediction – USF can’t be as bad as they were last year (111th in passing, 121st in rushing, 123rd in points per game, 74th in points allowed) but rock bottom is a long way to climb back from.  W, 49-14, 4-0

 

At Northwestern

Best Case – Even when 100 percent healthy, Wisconsin is deeper and more talented.  Blowout.  5-0

Worst Case – Even when 100 percent healthy, Wisconsin is deeper and more talented.  Tight win.  4-1

Prediction – I don’t see NU having enough size or strength along the DL to slow Wisconsin’s vaunted rushing attack.  W, 42-17, 5-0 (1-0)

 

Illinois

Best Case – Wisco dropped 56 on ‘em a season ago.  6-0

Worst Case – An improved Illini team still won’t have the chops to pull this off in Camp Randall.  5-1

Prediction – W, 45-21, 6-0 (2-0)

 

Maryland

Best Case – Terps could be a pesky team but like NU I don’t see them being physical enough in the trenches to overcome Melvin Gordon and friends.  7-0

Worst Case – I think pretty highly of Maryland and maybe, just maybe if this was in College Park I would do something goofy, but not with this team and not with the game in Maddy.  6-1

Prediction – Maryland hangs for the first half but eventually the big uglies up front wear them down.  W, 42-21, 7-0 (3-0)

 

At Rutgers

Best Case – UW starts the year 14th in the nation, where would this start get them?  I’d be stunned if not top 5.  8-0

Worst Case – Rutgers has the potential to go oh-for in the league.  7-1

Prediction – Stunning upset, 10-7.  Kidding!  W, 56-21, 8-0 (4-0) – – p.s., I’m assuming no one read the Rutgers preview so I had no qualms about copying and pasting.

 

At Purdue

Best Case – This was 41-10 a year ago.  More of the same.  9-0

Worst Case – I hate repeating data but this stat still amazes me.  In last year’s game UW had 388 rushing yards.  Purdue had 45.  8-1

Prediction – Over by halftime.  W, 49-20, 9-0 (5-0)

 

Nebraska

Best Case – Remember when the Badgers dropped 70 points on them the last meeting?  10-0

Worst Case – Much like the Maryland game if it were on the road I would let the notion of an upset creep in my head but all things being equal (they aren’t, Wisconsin is more talented) I go with the home team.  9-1

Prediction – Nebraska’s biggest weakness defensively is the secondary.  Stave gets his chance to shine has he bails the team out and the remain unblemished.  W, 31-21, 10-0 (6-0)

 

At Iowa

Best Case – Both teams are undefeated so Wisconsin gets a great late season bump by knocking off a fellow top 5 or 10 team.  11-0

Worst Case – The lone difficult road game proves to be the undoing as Iowa slips past.  9-2

Prediction – The best way to beat Wisconsin is having an amazing front seven.  Iowa is replacing three great linebackers.  While this is late in the season and that unit should have rounded into form, I’m not sure they will be amazing.  Good probably but not amazing.  W, 31-28, 11-0 (7-0)

 

Minnesota

Best Case – Minnesota is mired in a double-digit loss season so the Badgers enjoy a victory lap in the Axe game before going off to Indianapolis to reclaim the title.  12-0

Worst Case – Wisconsin hasn’t lost this rivalry game since the Roosevelt administration.  Well, that’s how it feels anyway.  10-2

Prediction – I expect the Gophers to take a major step back thanks to some huge holes to fill, especially the gaping one at quarterback.  W, 42-10, 12-0 (8-0)

 

Final Notes

Clearly, I think this team is pretty good.  At the worst case 10-2 (7-1) they should be in great position to make Indy, barring Iowa matching the 7-1 or going undefeated.  If the BC/P comes true at 12-0 and they win in Indy, this team will be in the first ever football tournament at this level of play and possibly the #1 seed if things go crazy ahead of them.