Best Case / Worst Case / Prediction – Rutgers

Rutgers enters 2014 with a good news/bad news vibe.  The good is they return a boatload of talent.  Nine 2013 starters, including quarterback Gary Nova (currently listed as “co-starter”), will be donning Rutgers uniforms this year on the offense alone.  The D only loses four starters and almost the entire front seven is back.  The bad news is they went just 6-7 a year ago.  They lost to Fresno, Louisville, Houston, Cinci, UCF, UConn and Notre Dame.  All these teams, save Connecticut, would be competitive in the Big Ten.  This doesn’t bode well.

Another bit of bad news is Rutgers didn’t excel on one side of the ball and have the other let them down and cost games.  Instead they are average to below average across the board, meaning they don’t have a fallback plan like an Indiana.  The passing attack was mild (65th), the rushing attack was limp (102nd), they didn’t score that much (78th) and gave up far too many points (81st).  Paul James and Justin Goodwin are serviceable backs and Tyler Kroft is a nice tight end but all three, along with Nova, really need to step up as the Big Ten looks to be entering one of its best seasons offensively.

Even if Rutgers gels and plays much better than last year, the schedule does them no favors.  Check this out.

 

2014 Schedule

 

At Washington State

Best Case – Technically the game is listed as neutral but it is in Seattle so one team goes across the state while the other goes across the nation.  Connor Halliday loved Mike Leach’s air raid attack with 4600 yards and 34 TDs.  I’m not liking where this is heading.  0-1

Worst Case – Outside the UConn game which was an upset based on talent, Rutgers struggled with passing teams.  Fresno State #1 passing, Louisville 17th, Cinci 19th, UCF 26th and Houston 27th.  All were losses and most were lopsided.  I really don’t like where this is heading.  0-1

Prediction – Mike Leach is a proven winner.  Kyle Flood…not so much.  L, 49-21, 0-1

 

Howard

Best Case – Howard went just 6-6 in FCS.  1-1

Worst Case – Even Eastern Michigan beat this team a year ago.  1-1

Prediction – W, 31-10, 1-1

 

Penn State

Best Case – This is one of only three league games I see Rutgers standing a chance in and this is mostly due to the potential Penn State is a mess early with a new coach.  Keyword, potential.  1-2

Worst Case – Christian Hackenberg was a pretty useful quarterback a season ago as just a freshman.  Uh-oh.  1-2

Prediction – While still under those moronic sanctions Penn State’s depth will always be an issue, but this shouldn’t rear its head just three games into the season.  Talent wins out.  L, 35-17, 1-2 (0-1)

 

At Navy

Best Case – Navy runs the option and if Rutgers has a strength defensively it is in the front.  I’ll bite on them getting a win.  Feels like an upset though.  2-2

Worst Case – Keenan Reynolds returns to run the same offense he guided to nine wins a year ago.  1-3

Prediction – Navy beat Indiana and Pittsburgh as well as pick a bowl victory over MTSU.  They also gave Notre Dame all they could handle.  All four last year are better than Rutgers is this season.  L, 27-21, 1-3 (0-1)

 

Tulane

Best Case – Tulane had the 18th best scoring defense a year ago according to the stats but they couldn’t score a lick.  Their seven-win campaign feels like it was done with smoke and mirrors.  3-2

Worst Case – Tulane was smoked 52-17 a season ago by Syracuse.  The Orange were kind of a slightly better version of Rutgers.  2-3

Prediction – Here’s a fun fact, Tulane played 9 games in the state of Louisiana a year ago.  Not so fun is they lost the four outside the state.  W, 28-14, 2-3 (0-1)

 

Michigan

Best Case – The talent favors Michigan so much that I don’t see any hope for Rutgers.  3-3

Worst Case – UConn beat Rutgers by 11 and Michigan beat UConn by 3.  Actually, 14 points doesn’t sound too bad.  2-4

Prediction – I have joked about copying and pasting in the past but I summed it up so well in Michigan’s preview that I can’t help myself.  “Rutgers might not be as dreadful as Illinois or Purdue but I don’t think they have the talent to be competitive against upper echelon teams either.”  L, 35-14, 2-4 (0-2)

 

At Ohio State

Best Case – Another moral victory where the overwhelmed Knights acquit themselves well in a loss.  3-4

Worst Case – Rutgers had a stretch last year where they lost two games by a combined 93-34.  The two teams were UCF and Cincinnati, two of the best AAC teams.  Oh boy.  2-5

Prediction – Rutgers could play the game of their lives and still come up short.  Big talent gulf.  L, 42-10, 2-5 (0-3)

 

At Nebraska

Best Case – Outside moral victories, this is a really tough stretch for the Knights.  3-5

Worst Case – Nebraska makes like Pacman and gobbles up the white dot of Rutgers.  2-6

Prediction – They are undermanned, travel halfway across the nation and the stadium is a tough environment.  Not a good recipe.  L, 35-17, 2-6 (0-4)

 

Wisconsin

Best Case – Well the hits just keep coming.  3-6

Worst Case – The only way Rutgers wins this is if the bus breaks down coming from Madison so Wisconsin is forced to field a team of Badger alums living in New York City.  2-7

Prediction: Stunning upset, 10-7.  Kidding!  L, 56-21, 2-7 (0-5)

 

Indiana

Best Case – Despite the grueling stretch the team maintains focus and make a late bowl push by knocking off the Hoosiers.  4-6

Worst Case – Indiana’s passing rank a year ago: 18th.  2-8

Prediction: I always think Indiana is due for a breakthrough and have them making a bowl.  One reason for this is taking down newcomer Rutgers.  L, 42-28, 2-8 (0-6)

 

At Michigan State

Best Case – You are joking, right?  4-7

Worst Case – How is this their schedule?  This would be difficult for a lifetime Big Ten team.  Not very kind hosts the league is.  2-9

Prediction – If you haven’t noticed already, I think the world of MSU and think very little of the ‘Gers.  L, 49-7, 2-9 (0-7)

 

At Maryland

Best Case – Maryland finds life in the league even harder than Rutgers and while they don’t make a bowl, they finish strong in a year doomed by the schedule maker.  5-7

Worst Case – In Maryland’s BC/WC I have them with a ceiling of 9 wins.  This was a good club before injuries a year ago.  2-10

Prediction – Maryland clinches a bowl on senior day against the Knights who are just playing out the string by this point in the year.  L, 35-21, 2-10 (0-8)

 

Final Thoughts

Hosting Indiana, Penn State and traveling to Maryland are the only three I would give Rutgers a punchers chance in.  Even if they swept those three, they still have the daunting trip to WSU and take on pesky Navy – in Annapolis no less.  I think so highly of this schedule that if you give it to any team (I mean any – Bama, FSU, Oregon, etc.) that club would not get through unscathed.  With this in mind…if the defending champs couldn’t play this slate without at least a few losses, how does Rutgers expect to fare?