Best Case / Worst Case / Prediction – Purdue

Darrell Hazell’s league debut can be summed up with one word: overmatched.  The young coach had only two years experience before Purdue called him and he inherited a bare cupboard.  The results were predictably awful.  1-11 (0-8) with the lone victory over an FCS club.  The raw numbers might even be more brutal than the record.  125th in rushing, 122nd in scoring and 114th in points allowed.  Only the passing game, 80th, gives Purdue some hope as freshman Danny Etling showed some flashes of promise last year.

Joining Etling is Akeem Hunt, a skillful back, and Etling’s favorite target DeAngelo Yancey.  Most of the OL is also back so the offense has no reason not to improve.  Defensively, the few good players have moved on from the program.  This should be another year of a lot points for anyone lucky enough to face the Boilermakers.

 

2014 Schedule

 

Western Michigan

Best Case – WMU was as bad as the Boilermakers also going 1-11 a season ago.  1-0

Worst Case – The Broncos struggled to tread water in the MAC.  One would think (hope?) that Purdue has a big edge in talent.  1-0

Prediction – W, 31-21, 1-0

 

Central Michigan

Best Case – The Chips went 6-6 a season ago but struggled with power league teams (0-2) and teams with winning records.  2-0

Worst Case – Purdue was about as far as you can get from being a team with a winning record a season ago.  Cooper Rush is also a pretty good quarterback.  The upset is certainly feasible.  1-1

Prediction – If CMU was at the level of program a few years ago when they were ripping off MAC titles, I would have no problem picking them but I think Purdue slips by…barely.  W, 24-21, 2-0

 

Notre Dame (at Lucas Oil)

Best Case – Boilermakers played the game of their season against the Irish coming up just short.  I don’t think they can win, but they could put another scare in them.  2-1

Worst Case – Don’t expect the Irish to sleep on Purdue two years in a row.  1-2

Prediction – Tons of people from South Bend come and it turns into an Irish fest in Indy.  L, 31-10, 2-1

 

Southern Illinois

Best Case – SIU lost to Illinois a year ago.  If a Big Ten team that bad can take them down…3-1

Worst Case – SIU went 7-5 but dipped their toes in the D-2 waters.  This isn’t exactly an FCS power.  2-2

Prediction – Purdue’s lone win a year ago was from the FCS division.  W, 38-17, 3-1

 

Iowa

Best Case – Iowa had no trouble with the Boilermakers a season ago winning by 24.  Maybe Purdue closes the gap a little.  3-2

Worst Case – With the losses on the defensive side of the ball, the floodgates could be open in league play for competent offenses.  2-3

Prediction – If the Hawks are to be contenders, they need to win the easier ones, even if they are on the road.  L, 42-14, 3-2 (0-1)

 

At Illinois

Best Case – This was Purdue’s best shot at a league win last year, coming up short 20-16.  They get the win this time and the breakthrough feels good.  4-2

Worst Case – Complete coin flip between two struggling clubs.  Purdue’s bad luck continues.  2-4

Prediction – In theory, Illinois would have home field advantage and a year (maybe two) jump on the rebuild.  L, 24-21, 3-3 (0-2)

 

Michigan State

Best Case – There is none.  4-3

Worst Case – Half a hundred and a shutout?  2-5

Prediction – Barring a Bob Griese-Drew Brees love child coming from the future, it is hard to see the Boilermakers having a shot in this one.  L, 42-17, 3-4 (0-3)

 

At Minnesota

Best Case – Minnesota’s major holes – especially at quarterback – never get resolved and Minnesota suffers a humbling season.  Purdue meanwhile makes a quiet step forward, including a road win here.  5-3

Worst Case – Minnesota was an eight game winner a season ago and figures to still be deeper and more talented than the Boilermakers.  2-6

Prediction – There is no way for Purdue to be as bad as last year but I’m not sure a more competitive team will lead to more wins.  I’ll take the home team here.  L, 35-14, 3-5 (0-4)

 

At Nebraska

Best Case – A moral victory at a tough road environment.  Purdue is clearly improved, but still lack the necessary playmakers to truly get over the hump in 2014.  5-4

Worst Case – I mentioned floodgates opening, well Ameer Abdullah wouldn’t mind those big holes to run through.  2-7

Prediction – Is Purdue at home?  No.  Is Purdue more talented?  No.  Is Purdue deeper than Nebraska?  No.  Is Purdue as well coached?  No.  L, 35-10, 3-6 (0-5)

 

Wisconsin

Best Case – They were destroyed, 41-10, a year ago.  Being more competitive would be a start.  5-5

Worst Case – Rushing stats from last year’s game: 45 for Purdue, 388 for Wisconsin.  Yikes.  2-8

Prediction – This one will get ugly.  L, 49-20, 3-7 (0-6)

 

Northwestern

Best Case – A heart breaking loss casts doubt on reaching a bowl.  5-6

Worst Case – A blowout loss casts doubt on the future.  2-9

Prediction – Northwestern should be improved from last year.  Even if the Cats do have a second down year in a row, they enjoy a lot more talent than the rebuilding Purdue program.  L, 28-17, 3-8 (0-7)

 

At Indiana

Best Case – Boilermakers show a lot of heart and bounce back from the NU game to get bowl eligible against their in-state rival.  6-6

Worst Case – Is it possible to get fired after a 3-21 start?  Two years is a pretty quick trigger.  2-10

Prediction – Indiana is entering their fourth year under Kevin Wilson.  The time is now for them to breakthrough and make a bowl.  In order to do so they need to drop their rival.  They should have the offense to do it.  L, 35-14, 3-9 (0-8)

 

Final Thoughts

 

Purdue was woefully young and lacked the necessary talent to compete a year ago.  Lagging well behind every other team in the league outside just a few means Purdue will be lining up behind the eightball in every league game again this season.  Yes they will be more competitive but it’s hard to pick them in any game.  So should Hazell be worried about his job?  Maybe, he was a bit of a reach as a hire with just two seasons head coaching experience at Kent State but two years is way too fast to pull the plug on a young, enthusiastic coach.  I would give him 2015 in a heartbeat and probably 2016.