Best Case / Worst Case / Prediction – Penn State

Year two of the Bill O’Brien tenure was much like the debut with a nice win-loss against the terrible sanctions of the NCAA – but then, more upheaval.  O’Brien used the two good seasons in Happy Valley to land the Houston Texans gig in the NFL.  In comes James Franklin who did outstanding work at Vanderbilt on the field but has already raised questions with some off the field decisions.  With such a sensitive climate at Penn State, it is curious how long this marriage can last if Franklin doesn’t grow up.

As for what the team actually has on the field, it is pretty good.  Christian Hackenberg is a solid quarterback.  He had a nice freshman season and could develop into the league’s best by the time his career ends.  Joining him is a bruising back in Zach Zwinak.  Unfortunately outstanding talent Allen Robinson is gone from the receiving corps and three starters along the OL.  On the other hand, 9 defensive starters return.

Despite all the talent this team didn’t have that much to show for it.  PSU settled for 38th in passing, 58th in rushing, 70th in scoring and 59th in points again.  The sanctions will also affect the depth.  If Penn State shows growth, picks up Franklin’s system and stays healthy they can compete.  The problem is doing all three seems like a pretty tall order.

 

2014 Schedule

 

UCF (In Dublin Ireland)

Best Case – UCF will try and do battle without Blake Bortles and Storm Johnson.  1-0

Worst Case – Rannell Hall and Breshad Perriman are solid wideouts and will help whoever becomes the starter.  George O’Leary is also one helluva coach.  0-1

Prediction – Both teams look like works in progress but PSU has a jump thanks to a proven leader under center.  W, 24-21, 1-0

 

Akron

Best Case – Akron started the year 1-6 with losses to (at the time) AQ conference teams UCF and Michigan.  2-0

Worst Case – The Zips finished strong going 4-1 down the stretch.  Many of their losses were tight too.  They lost to Michigan by 4, Louisiana-Lafayette by 5 and Northern Illinois by 7.  Terry Bowden returns his qb, Kyle Pohl, as well as his leading rusher and receiver.  Akron could compete in the MAC if they put it all together.  Never say never about the upset.  0-2

Prediction – Akron is certainly capable of pulling the upset, but I’ll take the more talented club that is also playing at home.  W, 28-14, 2-0

 

At Rutgers

Best Case – Rutgers sinks after getting tossed in the deep end of the Big Ten and PSU is all too willing to provide a blowout debut.  3-0

Worst Case – Hard to see Rutgers having enough talent to pull off an upset, even if Penn State is reeling from a stunning 0-2 start.  1-2

Prediction – My biggest worry about Penn State will be their depth once the grind of league play hits.  Fortunately that is an issue for the second half of the season, not week three.  W, 35-17, 3-0 (1-0)

 

Massachusetts

Best Case – UMass is a good example of how the FCS-FBS jump can take a while as they are just 2-22 in their new division.  4-0

Worst Case – After a shaky start, PSU evens up the ledger.  2-2

Prediction – W, 42-14, 4-0 (1-0)

 

Northwestern

Best Case – PSU hits the ground running and is on fire und Franklin while NU’s inconsistent play from a year ago has reared its ugly head.  5-0

Worst Case – The opposite, the team is still struggling to find its groove under a new coach and the new players can’t fill the shoes on that OL.  2-3

Prediction – PSU might be a bit more talented but the gap is pretty small.  I think home field advantage will be the deciding factor in what looks like a very fun game.  W, 28-24, 5-0 (2-0)

 

At Michigan

Best Case – PSU managed to win this game a year ago in a fantastic 4 OT tilt.  Very excited for this one.  6-0

Worst Case – Michigan’s new look offense is humming while Penn State has taken a step back thanks to all the off-season turnover.  2-4

Prediction – I’m sure PSU will have things figured out by week 7 but the talent is even, the game is at Michigan and there is always a chance that PSU will take longer to gel than expected.  Worse, the lack of depth injuries may come into play by now.  L, 31-28, 5-1 (2-1)

 

Ohio State

Best Case – OSU won this 63-14 a season ago, I don’t see a 50 point swing happening.  6-1

Worst Case – A repeat of the humiliation a season ago.  2-5

Prediction – PSU has a nice team but OSU looks to be among the cream of the league.  Keep it closer and improve from last year should be a realistic goal but no fan wants to hear that.  L, 31-17, 5-2 (2-2)

 

Maryland

Best Case – How many teams have gone to the Valley and get gobbled up?  How many of those have been middle of the road teams?  Hmm…7-1

Worst Case – PSU simply doesn’t fill the holes and Franklin’s message/system isn’t getting through.  Meanwhile Maryland turns out to be a lot better than anyone expected is picking off teams left and right behind the talented C.J. Brown.  2-6

Prediction – This is based a lot on the Indiana game last year.  Penn State seemed to struggle with teams that could put up points in droves last year.  The Terps have the potential to do just that.  Taking the upset.  L, 35-28, 5-3 (2-3)

 

At Indiana

Best Case – Indiana is like most Hoosier teams – the potential is there to succeed but so is the potential to fall apart.  If it is the later, PSU comes on the right side of a blowout.  8-1

Worst Case – Indiana had no trouble in this game a season ago.  With a lot of pieces back and the game in Bloomington, fans should be excited for a solid victory.  2-7

Prediction – It feel very strange saying this but Indiana has fewer questions surrounding this season than Penn State.  The sanctions have also robbed PSU of any depth advantage they had over lower-tier Big Ten teams in the past.  I think the Hoosiers have a legit shot at winning this game.  L, 42-35, 5-4 (2-4)

 

Temple

Best Case – Although playing better to end the year, the Owls still struggled in AAC action going just 2-10.  9-1

Worst Case – Just because you are in the same state does not a rivalry make.  3-7

Prediction – W, 38-13, 6-4 (2-4)

 

At Illinois

Best Case – There’s a real chance Illinois will be playing with an interim coach by this game.  10-1

Worst Case – Illinois came up short in overtime a season ago…maybe they find away to take down the Nittany Lions who are mired in a debacle of a season.  3-8

Prediction – Illinois’ defense a year ago was pretty weak, look for PSU to put up a number the Illini simply can’t match.  W, 35-14, 7-4 (3-4)

 

Michigan State

Best Case – Despite HC Dantonio and DC Narduzzi’s brilliance, simply too many new faces on defense for MSU and they take a step back.  Penn State caps off a magical season as a big eff-you to the NCAAs.  11-1

Worst Case – The Spartan D turns out to be good and all the returning talent on offense makes MSU the class of the league.  3-9

Prediction – Michigan looks downright scary to me.  If they are in contention for Indianapolis and the final four, they should be amped up for this one.  Considering their advantage in talent and depth, they have a great shot at the road victory.  L, 28-17, 7-5 (3-5)

 

Final Notes

The eastern teams all have tough schedules but Penn State’s isn’t the worst in the world.  Their crossovers are Illinois and Northwestern, two winnable games.  They also host the big baddies of the east – OSU and MSU.  Outside of the trip to Ann Arbor, Nittany Lion fans have to feel pretty good about their chances.  They are either at home, playing a beatable team or both.  Let’s see if they can take advantage.