Best Case / Worst Case / Prediction – Ohio State

Ohio State’s 2013 campaign went according to plan right up until it didn’t.  They were 12-0 and sitting in the drivers seat for a berth in the national title game when Michigan State triumphed in Indianapolis.  Perhaps dejected (or because of Clemson’s failure in previous big bowls) the Tigers beat the Buckeyes in South Florida to bring the final tally to 12-2.

Braxton Miller is back and that is huge considering his backfield mate, Carlos Hyde, is gone as are four OL starters.  The other side of the ball is sitting pretty with the entire DL back.  OSU of course enjoys better recruiting than anyone else in the league based on the number of kids Ohio produces and it’s nationwide brand.  Like most years the question isn’t how good Ohio State can be but are they good enough to win the national title.

 

2014 Schedule

 

At Navy

Best Case – There are two times a team is comfortable facing the triple option.  The opening day and the bowl.  Both situations gives you ample time to gameplan for a style of play you might not see in several years.  1-0

Worst Case – Ohio State has a history of head scratching close games early in the season.  2009: OSU 31-Navy 28, 2011: OSU 27-Toledo 22, 2012: OSU 35-Cal 28, 2012: OSU 29-UAB 15, 2013: OSU 40-Buffalo 20.  Factor in Navy being a good team with a difficult offense and you have a chance for a stressful Saturday.  1-0

Prediction – That outstanding defensive front will go a long way to corralling pesky Navy.  W, 31-21, 1-0

 

Virginia Tech

Best Case – Despite being an 8 game winner a year ago Tech struggled mightily at scoring (101st).  This has been a recent trend for Frank Beamer and doesn’t bode well on the road to a team with a good defense.  2-0

Worst Case – After a rather quick decline since a BCS appearance in 2011, it’s hard not to think of Virginia Tech more as a brand than a true national power.  2-0

Prediction – Tech had the 11th best defense a year ago and Beamer is still one of the craftier coaches around.  This won’t be a cakewalk but once again the front prevents a team from putting up many points.  W, 28-7, 2-0

 

Kent State

Best Case – As ESPN loves to report, OSU hasn’t lost to a team from the state of Ohio since 1743.  3-0

Worst Case – The streak will end at some point to some team but that time isn’t now and this isn’t the team.  The Flashes could only muster a 4-8 record in the MAC a year ago.  3-0

Prediction – W, 49-14, 3-0

 

Cincinnati

Best Case – Cinci lost a lot of key pieces on both sides of the ball, possibly non bigger than Brandon Kay who was a reliable quarterback.  4-0

Worst Case – Despite Kay’s departure, Munchie Legaux was the starter in 2013 before being lost for the year with injury.  Another possible starter is Gunner Kiel, the highly coveted recruit from a few years ago.  The returning weapons should help either one make the offense hum.  If the Bearcats get up to speed offensively while OSU’s new look O-line and loss of some key pieces prevent OSU from scoring an upset is possible.  Talk about worst case scenario.  3-1

Prediction – Despite his successes Tommy Tuberville’s Texas Tech and UC teams have been known to come up small at the worst times.  A chance to impress the Big Ten and give extremely faint hope to fans that the big league will come calling was missed last year when UC was blown out by Illinois.  The AAC contender started 0-1 by dropping a game to doormat USF.  Then when they rallied to get back into contention for the BCS bid when they lost to Louisville.  Lastly in the bowl game they no-showed against North Carolina.  Those games all pale in comparison to how important this one is for the program.  Expect another case of coming up small when it matters the most.  W, 38-13, 4-0

 

At Maryland

Best Case – Maryland isn’t a pushover but they are also a soft enough opponent to give OSU a comfortable start to the league campaign.  5-0

Worst Case – A tight game forces Braxton Miller to play the whole game and take more hits than he should.  4-1

Prediction – Maryland should be psyched up for their league debut and have the talent to hang for a few quarters but eventually OSU will wear them down.  W, 35-14, 5-0 (1-0)

 

Rutgers

Best Case – RU couldn’t hang with the cream of the AAC crop.  That spells trouble.  6-0

Worst Case – Outside a closer than expected game that fans the flames of Mark May and Lou Holtz screaming at each other about how good OSU is, there isn’t much to worry about.  5-1

Prediction – I’m curious how much better Rutgers would be with a few Buckeye third stringers.  W, 42-10, 6-0 (2-0)

 

At Penn State

Best Case – OSU won this 63-14 a season ago.  More of the same.  7-0

Worst Case – PSU is normally a tough out (although last season’s game goes against this notion) and Happy Valley is never an easy place to play.  Once again OSU’s scary front is the determining factor as the Nittany Lions have a fresh OL.  6-1

Prediction – This will be a classic case of a game being won in the trenches.  OSU’s vastly superior DL leads the way.  W, 31-17, 7-0 (3-0)

 

Illinois

Best Case – OSU drops 60+ again.  8-0

Worst Case – Again, outside of injuries this game shouldn’t impact the league race at all.  7-1

Prediction – A blowout.  W, 52-21, 8-0 (4-0)

 

At Michigan State

Best Case – MSU is undefeated so the win pushes the Buckeyes into the top 5 (if they weren’t there already).  9-0

Worst Case – OSU may have a great front but what if Connor Cook passes over it?  Uh-oh.  7-2

Prediction – I love the pieces MSU has returning offensively and I have full confidence that Pat Narduzzi and Mark Dantonio get the defense playing well enough (they don’t have to recreated last year’s lockdown unit) to win games.  Giving the edge to the Spartans thanks to this being in East Lansing.  L, 28-24 (possible OT affair), 8-1 (4-1)

 

At Minnesota

Best Case – Minnesota has quarterback issues (among many others) and looks like a long shot to replicate last year’s eight-win magic.  10-0

Worst Case – Big advantage in talent but think about how pissed OSU will be if they drop that MSU game.  They’ll come out with guns blazing.  8-2

Prediction – I like Braxton Miller’s savvy against a defensive unit with a number of new faces.  W, 42-17, 9-1 (5-1)

 

Indiana

 

Best Case – One final tuneup before The Game.  11-0

Worst Case – Indiana’s passing game leads the league and they attack through the air very well to keep it closer than the talent should allow.  OSU wins late, breaking the Hoosiers’ heart.  9-2

Prediction – Indiana is 12-70 versus Ohio State and hasn’t won in Columbus since 1987.  W, 45-17, 10-1 (6-1)

 

Michigan

Best Case – Third straight undefeated regular season.  12-0

Worst Case – Michigan’s offense comes alive under Doug Nussmeier and it is the Wolverines who are unblemished on the year.  9-3

Prediction – Last year’s margin was razor thin and I expect the same in this rivalry.  In the end the talent barely favors Ohio State and playing at the Shoe is always a difficult task.  W, 38-35, 11-1 (7-1)

 

Final Thoughts

Clearly OSU is one of the teams to beat and the most likely thing to hold them back is traveling to Michigan State and to a lesser extent Penn State and hosting UM.  Still, the schedule sets up nicely thanks to their crossover games being pretty easy.  Anything less than double digit wins will be a surprise.  Even my nightmare scenario where everything goes wrong, I still have the Buckeyes getting nine wins.