Best Case / Worst Case / Prediction – Northwestern

The 2013 Northwestern Wildcat campaign was a mess.  Despite starting the year in the top-25 and going 4-0 bad luck, injuries and inconsistent play doomed them in the league.  A 0-7 start in Big Ten play ended any bowl hope and only a win over lousy Illinois in the finale prevented a winless league effort.

The good news is there is plenty of talent returning.  Trevor Siemian is one such piece.  While the quarterback lacks the dual threat of Kain Colter, his arm vastly superior.  I think he has the chance to flourish now that Colter has graduated.  2012 running back Venric Mark missed almost the entire 2013 campaign due to injury.  If he can return to his 1000 yard talent, NU should be better.  Christian and Tony Jones are also a nice receiving tandem returning.  The entire OL is back as well as the bulk of the defense.

The bad news is all these returning players may continue to plague the team with their inconsistencies.  For example, the Nebraska game, NU jumped out to a 21-14 halftime lead.  Then in the second was held to just 3 points and the defense collapsed, including a Hail Mary to lose it.  It seemed like the club would pull one-eighties like these all the time.

Finally there is coach Pat Fitzgerald.  I know he has won a lot of games and is the darling of NU since he came home to play for his school but I can’t shake a certain feeling.  For such a good defensive player, why does it seem like the defense is always soft?  I’m sure someone would bring up recruiting and talent but then why did Stanford rank 10th (19 ppg) and Northwestern 69th (27.1 ppg).  Need I remind you the Pac 12 was a better league last year too?  I don’t think Fitzgerald’s seat will ever get very warm and it is easy as an outsider to bring this up, but for any other coach with Fitzgerald’s track record, 2014 would be very important for job security.  Otherwise my extremely small minority opinion might gain a few followers.

 

2014 Schedule

 

California

Best Case – Northwestern picked up a two touchdown win in Berkeley a year ago.  More of the same.  1-0

Worst Case – Cal had even more injury issues than NU a season ago, at one point I believe every defensive starter had missed at least a game.  Sonny Dykes is a pretty good coach and QB Jared Goff had an outstanding freshman season.  I can see a path to losing this opener.  0-1

Prediction – The thing about all of Cal’s injuries is a moot point in the opener.  NU won this healthy a year ago and should be able to do the same this time around.  W, 38-28, 1-0

 

Northern Illinois

Best Case – Leading rusher, qb and Heisman candidate Jordan Lynch is now in the NFL.  2-0

Worst Case – That is a lot of offense taken off the field.  I’m sure NIU can cope as the season goes on but this is is a pretty tall order early in the season.  1-1

Prediction – NIU doesn’t have enough scoring to keep up.  W, 31-10, 2-0

 

Western Illinois

Best Case – The FCS Leathernecks weren’t very good a season ago.  3-0

Worst Case – WIU could only manage a 4-8 record and lost their two FBS games by a combined 67-19.  2-1

Prediction – W, 49-17, 3-0

 

At Penn State

Best Case – Sometimes teams have really rocky starts with a new coach.  Huge road win and after starting last year’s Big Ten schedule 0-7, the monkey is off the back early.  4-0

Worst Case – Of course PSU does have one of the best young quarterbacks in the nation and nine returning starters on defense.  2-2

Prediction – Both teams have holes that need to be fixed if they are to be competitive but PSU should have a slim talent edge, especially at quarterback, as well as that big home field advantage they enjoy.  Should be a great game.  L, 28-24, 3-1 (0-1)

 

Wisconsin

Best Case – Badgers are a true contender in the west.  This feels like a big ask for an upset, even if NU is vastly improved.  4-1

Worst Case – A lopsided defeat drops Northwestern to 1-9 in league games over the last two seasons.  2-3

Prediction – Northwestern lacks the grit defensively for the powerful Badgers.  This one could be over quickly.  L, 42-17, 3-2 (0-2)

 

At Minnesota

Best Case – Minnesota’s struggles on offense clear the way for a nice league road win.  5-1

Worst Case – Gopher’s play as well as last year when they won 8 games, including this very matchup.  2-4

Prediction – Neither team looks to have a great defense so this will come down to which offense executes better.  NU has the advantage in this regard.  W, 28-21, 4-2 (1-2)

 

Nebraska

Best Case – These two teams played pretty even last year with the Huskers needing a Hail Mary to win.  NU gets their revenge.  6-1

Worst Case – Nebraska has an edge in talent and depth across the field.  There is a reason that, despite being the road team, they will most likely be favored in this game.  2-5

Prediction – Four Husker turnovers kept last year’s game closer than it should have been.  I’ll take Nebraska all day between these two.  L, 31-21, 4-3 (1-3)

 

At Iowa

Best Case – Iowa’s 8-4 turns out to be a mirage as they team looks more and more like the 2012 dog of a team.  7-1

Worst Case – Iowa proves to be the contender some have expected them to be as the ‘Cats are overwhelmed in a tough road environment.  2-6

Prediction – Iowa has a bugaboo with Northwestern as the Wildcats always seem to have their number.  Even in last year’s woeful campaign for NU this game went to overtime.  On talent and coaching alone, Iowa shouldn’t have any issue but you can throw that out when these teams square off.  I’ll give the slim edge to Iowa thanks to the game being at Kinnick.  L, 24-21, 4-4 (1-4)

 

Michigan

Best Case – Tough to see Northwestern having the horses in this game based solely on talent, no matter how improved they play.  7-2

Worst Case – A second straight bowl-less season.  2-7

Prediction – Last year was an exciting triple OT game so we know Northwestern can hang with the big, bad Maize and Blue.  I expect another exciting one.  L, 42-38, 4-5 (1-5)

 

At Notre Dame

Best Case – Notre Dame struggled with Purdue a year ago and lost to Michigan so the Big Ten knows how to tango with God’s team.  Getting a rare crack to play against the marquee Irish program should excite the Wildcats.  8-2

Worst Case – Did I fail to mention Notre Dame beat Michigan State last year (granted Connor Cook wasn’t the starter yet).  2-8

Prediction – Notre Dame is tough to get a read on, especially since Everett Golson is back and who knows how missing last year will affect his development.  Feel like another coinflip game but I’ll give the edge to the home team.  L, 28-24, 4-6 (1-5)

 

At Purdue

Best Case – Two league losses could still win the west.  We’ll see.  9-2

Worst Case – Much like how Northwestern dispatched Illinois a year ago to save some dignity, they do the same here.  3-8

Prediction – Purdue has a long way back from going oh-for in league play a year ago.  Northwestern should enjoy a sizable talent advantage in this won.  W, 28-17, 5-6 (2-5)

 

Illinois

Best Case – Illinois is mired in a winless season while NU has a chance to grab the western title if a few things fall into place.  10-2

Worst Case – Illinois is enjoying their best season in a while as Beckman caps off his COY candidacy with an 8th win and drops their rival.  3-9

Prediction – Northwestern’s bounce back season is complete with a 2-0 finish to make a bowl game.  W, 31-17, 6-6 (3-5)

 

Final Notes

Much like Maryland in the east, Northwestern could have 8 or 9 win talent but have to settle for less thanks to a really rough schedule.  The non-conference includes a power league team in Cal, blue blood Notre Dame and NIU – which has been a factory in the MAC.  Their cross over games don’t do them any favors either – at Penn State and Michigan.  Two division games Wildcat fans would think are manageable on paper become harder since they are both on the road (Minnesota and Iowa).  Top to bottom this is one of the harder schedules in the league so NU better be ready to grind because September 27 (PSU) to November 15 (Notre Dame) could be a 7 game winless stretch unless the players and coaches are on top of things.