Best Case / Worst Case / Prediction – Nebraska

The Cornhuskers had one of the strangest seasons a year ago.  They barely beat Wyoming and got smoked at home by UCLA.  Despite the early shakiness, they ran their mark to 5-1.  A 3-3 finish included a surprising loss to Minnesota and getting drubbed by Michigan State and Iowa.  Letting a title game berth slip away over the final weeks had many speculate about Bo Pelini’s job despite going 8-4.  A solid win over Georgia in the bowl ended most of the chatter about his job after securing yet another 9-win campaign.

While Nebraska didn’t have any singular reason for an up and down campaign it seemed like dumb luck at times for why things played out.  Bad luck, like the injury to Taylor Martinez and good luck, like the Hail Mary win against Northwestern.  All in all it is hard to get a good read on what the ceiling of this team is.

We do know this, offensively they will be led by Ameer Abdullah.  He has the talent to be the league’s best back but questions at quarterback and just a single starter on the OL comes back.  Defensively the Huskers have a lot returning from the front but a new secondary.  The “Blackshirts” weren’t amazing though a season ago, settling for 50th in the nation.  Most troubling, against the best teams they faced a year ago they 35+ in each of them (0-4).  It wasn’t until the bowl that the D finally played a great game against stiff competition.  

If these fresh faces pan out and (probable starter) Tommy Armstrong Jr. plays well then the Huskers can make Indianapolis.  If not, well, Bo’s job might be a frequent topic of discussion for the passionate and antsy Husker fan base.  The good news is the schedule dodges Ohio State, Michigan and Indiana – all teams that look capable of putting a big number up on the scoreboard.

 

2014 Schedule

 

Florida Atlantic

Best Case – FAU went 6-6 a year ago but struggled with Miami and Auburn from power leagues.  1-0

Worst Case – Barring injury, the Owls shouldn’t pose much of a roadblock.  1-0

Prediction – W, 42-10, 1-0

 

McNeese State

Best Case – Umm, FCS alert.  2-0

Worst Case – McNeese went 10-3 a year ago and smoked FBS level South Florida 53-21.  I still don’t see them pulling off this upset.  2-0

Prediction – We will know one thing, 2014 Nebraska will be as good or better than 2013 South Florida.  The Bulls lost to both FAU and McNeese a season ago.  W, 38-14, 2-0

 

At Fresno State

Best Case – Derek Carr isn’t walking through that door.  3-0

Worst Case – Fresno has a history dating back to the Pat Hill days of playing anyone, anywhere.  This fearlessness has made the Bulldogs a solid program.  In 2014 alone they play USC, Utah and Nebraska.  Hosting a big time team at their rocking stadium could lead to something goofy.  You never know.  2-1

Prediction – Losing nearly 5000 passing yards and 48 touchdowns is a tall order for the Bulldogs.  Nice road win for Nebraska.  W, 28-13, 3-0

 

Miami (FL)

Best Case – Miami’s starting qb and best wr are now in the NFL.  Huskers roll.  4-0

Worst Case – Duke Johnson, Miami’s solid running back, should be healthy after last season’s broken ankle.  They find away to replace Stephen Morris and the club that won nine games a year ago and opened 7-0 is firing on all cylinders.  2-2

Prediction – Last year when Nebraska hosted UCLA it was an unmitigated disaster.  Was that because of Nebraska or was UCLA that good?  Was the death of a teammate for the Bruins enough to fire them up?  Who knows.  The ‘Caines OL and running game should be good but the defense the last few years has been shaky.  I think Nebraska is deeper and has a better defense but this feels like a coin flip.  W, 38-35 (OT), 4-0

 

Illinois

Best Case – The Illini could have one of the worst defenses in the league.  Abdullah goes off.  5-0

Worst Case – Illinois could put a scare in them if they exceed all expectations and Nebraska turns out to be much worse than expected, but I still see the Huskers holding homeserve.  3-2

Prediction – Nebraska has as many question marks as Illinois but Nebraska has recruited better over the last, um, forever and love him or loath him, Bo is a superior coach to Tim Beckman.  W, 38-17, 5-0 (1-0)

 

At Michigan State

Best Case – Sparty had no problems in Lincoln a year ago, blowing out Nebraska 41-28.  I’m not sure there has been enough changes from year to year to have a two touchdown swing, especially with this year’s tilt in Spartan Stadium.  5-1

Worst Case – Nebraska’s new look offense simply cannot figure out a restructured Pat Narduzzi defense.  3-3

Prediction – MSU’s defense has a lot of turnover but they boast best defensive head coach in the league and the best defensive coordinator in the league.  I have full confidence that this side of the ball comes together and with the returning talent on offense…oh boy!  L, 31-13, 5-1 (1-1)

 

At Northwestern

Best Case – Huskers get back on track with a beatdown.  Title hopes still have a pulse.  6-1

Worst Case – Both teams had their fair share of bad luck last year but thanks to a Hail Mary, Nebraska got the victory.  This time they aren’t as lucky.  4-3

Prediction – Despite a close game and a crazy finish, Nebraska should have had this game on lock down.  4 turnovers nearly cost them the game.  If they can play clean, they should get by the Wildcats.  W, 31-21, 6-1 (2-1)

 

Rutgers

Best Case – I don’t see any mishap here for the corn heads.  7-1

Worst Case – Rutgers listed mediocre starter Gary Nova as “co-starter.”  We all know the saying about teams that have two quarterbacks.  5-3

Prediction – Pretty long trip for the Scarlet Knights to a pretty tough stadium to play at.  The fact that Nebraska is more talented doesn’t help the cause.  W, 35-17, 7-1 (3-1)

 

Purdue

Best Case – Three straight lopsided wins after the MSU loss put Nebraska near the top 10 and they control their own destiny in the west.  8-1

Worst Case – Copy and paste what I said about Illinois game.  6-3

Prediction – Broken record alert!!!  Even in a down year and Purdue exceeding every and all expectations I think Nebraska’s edge in recruiting over the last few years gives them a more complete club.  W, 35-10, 8-1 (4-1)

 

At Wisconsin

Best Case – They didn’t face each other in 2013 but I think both fan bases remember how the previous match-up went in Indianapolis.  Madison is mighty tough to play at and I like the returning talent of the Badgers better.  8-2

Worst Case – 70 points again?  6-4

Prediction – Wisconsin has found ways to run on everyone but in the off chance Nebraska does, an interesting chess match could develop with Stave saving the day and picking apart a new-look Nebraska secondary.  L, 31-21, 8-2 (4-2)

 

Minnesota

Best Case – With the odds of the title game all but extinguished with the Wisconsin loss, a pissed off bunch of seniors romp in their final game in Lincoln.  9-2

Worst Case – Minnesota’s quarterback issues get resolved while Nebraska is plagued by inconsistent play from that position all year long and it costs them again.  6-5

Prediction – I think last year’s Gopher win was much more about the state of Nebraska football at that point in the season due to injuries and sloppy play.  I don’t see the more talented team having those issues two straight years.  W, 27-21, 9-2 (5-2)

 

At Iowa

Best Case – Iowa’s new linebacking group doesn’t have the heart of last year’s team so the defense takes a step back.  Abdullah takes advantage of the softer front seven.  10-2

Worst Case – Is .500 bad enough to have the vocal minority get Bo out of town?  Hmm, 6-6

Prediction – Iowa won this game by 21 a year ago and returns a lot of talent.  The “rivalry” finally gets cooking as Iowa wins back-to-back.  Is that enough for the air quotes to get removed next season?  Hell no.  L, 28-24, 9-3 (5-3)

 

Final Notes

Nebraska has the chance to be a great team that falls short due to a tough schedule.  Their three biggest league games – MSU, Wisconsin and Iowa – are all road games.  Worse, I think all three are better than Nebraska.  Still, going 9-3 with those as the only losses is nothing to scoff at.  It will be Pelini’s seventh straight 9 win season meaning he is 7-for-7 of hitting that total.  A bowl victory will give Nebraska their 7th double digit win season this century.  If that doesn’t qualify for Nebraska football being “back**” I don’t know what will.

 

**Do losing seasons in 2004 and 2007 as their only losing seasons since 1961 really count as Nebraska going somewhere?