Best Case / Worst Case / Prediction – Iowa

Iowa enters year three of the Greg Davis experience with a lot more hope and optimism than a year ago.  While the offense wasn’t setting the world ablaze (81st and scoring / 96th passing / 50th rushing) there was clear improvement.  A little better play on offense paired with a top 10 defense gave the Hawks a nice bounce back season after an injury plagued 2012.  The 8-5 record was encouraging considering all the losses were to solid teams (Northern Illinois, MSU, Wisconsin, OSU and LSU).  With several pieces back, Iowa is a popular pick to give Wisconsin all they can handle in the Big Ten west.

So who is coming back…Jake Rudock had a decent debut season as the starting man in Iowa City.  Most encouraging about him is his growth over the season.  In the final three games of the regular season he tossed 2 TD passes in each game to only 3 INTs.  Joining him is a trio of backs that all had flashes last year.  Bruiser Mark Weisman, speedster Jordan Canzeri and the hybrid Damon Bullock.  Based on how the season ended Bullock appears to be the odd man out of the rotation as Canzeri’s speed really mixes well with Weisman’s power.  LT Brandon Scherff will help anchor a strong OL.  Finally, the passing game returns both Kevonte Martin-Manly and Tevaun Smith.  They led the team in receiving a year ago so Rudock should mesh even better with his wideouts.

Defensively they are mostly intact outside the linebacking corps.  All three starters graduated after a great run in Iowa City.  While the middle may take a bit of time to get up to speed, the secondary and the line should help.  It is difficult to reproduce a top 10 defense in back to back years, but even if the D slid to 30th, the offense should improve enough to offset the difference and prevent the team from faltering.

The big question is if the title contender status is warranted.  If the D remains strong and the offense makes the leap, Iowa has the ability to hang with anybody.  Factor in an extremely easy schedule and the Hawkeye faithful should expect a big win total.  Anything less than 9 wins will feel like the club came up short.

 

2014 Schedule

 

Northern Iowa

Best Case – UNI is a solid FCS program but they have struggled with Iowa.  Hawks in a cakewalk.  1-0

Worst Case – UNI experienced a down year (by their standards) last season winning 7 games.  Of those seven, Iowa State was downed.  Still like the Hawks chances, but you can’t sleep on this team.  1-0

Prediction – Even if it is a tight game I won’t be worried.  In 2009 Iowa needed to block two field goals to hold on to a 17-16 win.  They won the Orange Bowl later that year.  W, 38-10, 1-0

 

Ball State

Best Case – Ball State lost their outstanding starting QB to graduation as well as some other offensive pieces.  2-0

Worst Case – The Cardinals were 10 game winners a season ago and are still a dangerous MAC club.  Another tight game in which the starters have to go the distance opens them up to more hits and more possibility of injury.  2-0

Prediction – Keith Wenning to Willie Sneed was a great qb-wr combo a year ago.  It is too bad for BSU fans that they are now in the NFL.  W, 31-14, 2-0

 

Iowa State

Best Case – Cyclones were one of the youngest teams in the nation last year and took their lumps en route to a 3-9 finish.  Hawks enjoy their second straight victory in the rivalry.  3-0

Worst Case – ISU always comes to play in this one and last year was no different (27-21).  State looks to be a lot better after playing so many youngsters a year ago.  Defeat is always an option in this one.  2-1

Prediction – Iowa has the talent advantage but throw everything out when it comes to this in-state rivalry.  Cyclones will keep it close but Iowa prevails late.  W, 31-24, 3-0

 

At Pittsburgh

Best Case – Pitt was the definition of mediocre a season ago but no longer having qb Tom Savage could put them at risk for a down season.  Iowa finds a way to win on the road.  4-0

Worst Case – You know why teams don’t like traveling to other power league teams in the non-conference?  Because road games are hard.  Pitt defends home turf.  2-2

Prediction – Pitt returns some key pieces on offense, especially along the line.  The defense also has a number of returning contributors so this won’t be an easy game by any stretch of the imagination.  Iowa does have the edge under center and like many games that will be the deciding factor.  One or two INT’s by Pitt’s inexperienced Chad Voytik would be the difference between winning and losing.  Iowa escapes.  W, 24-17, 4-0

 

At Purdue

Best Case – Purdue could have the worst defense in the league.  Iowa enjoys something rare in the Big Ten – an easy road win.  5-0

Worst Case – This was a three score game a year ago.  I’m not sure there has been enough change in either program to see the result swing that wildly.  3-2

Prediction – Iowa makes an early statement after two tight games against State and Pitt.  W, 42-14, 5-0 (1-0)

 

Indiana

Best Case – Another club that has big questions on defense.  Rudock thrives.  6-0

Worst Case – IU can score with the best of them.  Iowa’s defense slides without that incredible trio at LB and the Hoosiers get a nice league win.  3-3

Prediction – Indiana has played Iowa pretty tight in recent memory, winning as recently as 2012.  That was one of Iowa’s worst seasons and the margin was only 3.  The talent is clearly in Iowa’s corner and home field is an added bonus.  W, 31-24, 6-0 (2-0)

 

At Maryland

Best Case – Iowa’s preseason hype has proven to be well placed as they hit 10th in the nation.  7-0

Worst Case – Maryland proves to be a surprising hit in the league and pick off Iowa in front of the home fans.  3-4

Prediction – Much like Indiana, I think Maryland could have nice club.  Iowa slips by another opponent but the margin is slim.  W, 28-24, 7-0 (3-0)

 

Northwestern

Best Case – Iowa is rolling while Northwestern’s slump from a year ago continues over to a second season.  8-0

Worst Case – A healthy Wildcat team plays like 2012 and not 2013 and take down the Hawks.  3-5

Prediction – Northwestern always plays Iowa tight and last year’s OT thriller shows how crazy this series has become.  Home field and talent allow Iowa to eek out another win and remain undefeated.  W, 24-21, 8-0 (4-0)

 

At Minnesota

Best Case – I expect the Gophers to have a big slide this year thanks to a lot of talent and depth questions.  Iowa also beat them firmly a season ago.  9-0

Worst Case – After a rough patch of games, Iowa steps up and spoils their rival’s season thanks to Minnesota’s subpar defense.  4-5

Prediction – I picked Iowa a year ago in this one and will keep my chips on the table.  W, 31-14, 9-0 (5-0)

 

At Illinois

Best Case – Illinois is mired in a trainwreck season with Beckman already getting canned.  Iowa enjoys another easy victory.  10-0

Worst Case – Iowa returns to the 2012 form and an improved Illini team take one step closer to a surprising bowl berth.  4-6

Prediction – Iowa has better talent and a proven coach.  It also seems like Kirk is level headed demeanor is communicated well enough that he gets his team to think that way.  As a result I remember very few games where the Hawks were caught looking past the opponent.  W, 35-10, 10-0 (6-0)

 

Wisconsin

Best Case  – Wisconsin is also undefeated so that way Iowa gets to have a marquee win on their resume for the final four.  11-0

Worst Case – Hawks officially eliminated from bowl contention and Greg Davis’ fire clock is counting down and approaching zero.  4-7

Prediction – With the game in Iowa City it is very tempting to pick Iowa since the teams appear very evenly matched.  Going against this though because it is very difficult to stop UW’s rushing game without an amazing front seven.  While Iowa should be good up front, I don’t think they will be amazing with three whole new linebackers.  Their biggest flaw costs them late.  L, 31-28, 10-1 (6-1)

 

Nebraska

Best Case – With the division title wrapped up Iowa maintains that edge as they can sniff the tournament.  12-0

Worst Case – Second 8 loss season in three years.  Lots of coaching turnover and Kirk’s seat red hot for 2015.  4-8

Prediction – Iowa won this game by 21 a season ago in Lincoln.  While the Huskers return some nice talent, the fact is Iowa returns more.  Hawks also bounce back from their lone loss of the season.  W, 28-24, 11-1 (7-1)

 

Final Notes

Thanks to the soft league schedule, Iowa has a great shot at 6 league wins heading into the final two.  A couple upsets and Nebraska-Wisconsin having some mutually assured destruction there is a great chance at Iowa still making Indianapolis if they can score a split.  Of course this is operating under two assumptions.  First, Rudock and the offense overall makes the jump to the next level.  Secondly the defense remains strong despite several new faces.