Best Case / Worst Case / Prediciton – Michigan

Michigan, Michigan, Michigan…where to start with this team.  There was the 5-0 start in 2013 which helped mask flat games against Connecticut and Akron.  Then there was the 2-6 finish as they struggled in the league.  Erratic play by Devin Gardner as well as abandoning the running game (finished 104th in the country) led to Al Borges getting canned and Doug Nussmeier coming in from Alabama.  Nussmeier is a big name hire, no doubt.  Can he get his tools up to snuff quick enough remains the question.

Here’s a side note, about Nussmeier: in three seasons at Washington (before getting to enjoy Alabama talent), his teams averaged 26.08 ppg in 2009, 21.85 in 2010 and 33.15 in 2010.  Considering how down Washington was and how good the Pac 12 is, those aren’t bad numbers.  Of course all three figures are right around what Michigan averaged a season ago (32.2, good for 47th).  What Nussmeier needs to figure out is how to score consistently, not how to score more.  30 points a game should be enough to win but what Michigan did was swing wildly.  63 points against Indiana followed up by 6 against Michigan State.  Don’t expect Nussmeier to work wonders in his first season, but I’ll use consistency as the benchmark.

In addition to Gardner returning, skilled TE Devin Funchess is a key cog back.  The running game was terrible last year but losing both tackles on the line won’t help anything.  If a new look line can help create a running game and give Gardner time, Michigan should be able to score.  Maybe not in droves, but enough to win their fair share of games.

It wasn’t just the offense that was up and down for Michigan last year as their defense also had some holes.  They finished 67th in the nation at just a hair under 27 points per game allowed but thanks to 7 returning starters, this unit should hold steady if not improve, putting the onus on the offense for generating victories.  Personally, I think this unit played pretty well down the stretch.  Outside the OSU game, they held Iowa, Northwestern, Nebraska and Michigan State to 24 points or fewer – better than their overall season average.

Hoke is entering his fourth season at Michigan but has seen his win total decline each season.  Another losing record in league play will make his seat a little warm for 2015.  I can’t foresee a scenario in which he loses his job this year, but Michigan doesn’t want to tread water forever.  Hoke likes to talk a big game and say he has championship expectations but at some point they need to step up.  I don’t think 2014 will be they year they do thanks to MSU and OSU being a level better, but they should still have a solid team and make a good bowl.  Take a look.

 

2014 Schedule

Appalachian State

Best Case – Save your jokes, this isn’t the team that was a FCS dynasty.  The Mountaineers won just 4 games a season ago as they started the always rocky transition to FBS.  1-0

Worst Case – Other than injuries, I don’t see how this game will affect UM at all.  1-0

Prediction – W, 42-17, 1-0

 

At Notre Dame

Best Case – In one of Gardner’s finest performances a year ago, Michigan downed their rival 41-30.  2-0

Worst Case – Notre Dame had a top 30 defense last year which helped them win 9 games as they carried a pedestrian offense.  1-1

Prediction – When Notre Dame was good last year, they were really good.  They beat ASU, USC, hung with Stanford and took down MSU (granted that was before Connor Cook became the clear cut starter).  They lose a lot of offensive talent but do have running back Cam McDaniel who had flashes a season ago.  The biggest X-factor for them is the return of Everett Golson.  As a freshman he quarterbacked this team to the national title game but sat out last year with academic issues.  It is unknown how his development will be affected with such a long gap between games.  I know it’s a road game but Michigan feels like more of a sure thing in this one.  W, 28-21, 2-0

Miami (OH)

Best Case – The Cradle of Coaches has fallen on hard times enduring a 0-12 campaign a season ago.  3-0

Worst Case – Unless a major injury befalls a starter, this game doesn’t even qualify as a speed bump.  2-1

Prediction – W, 49-10, 3-0

 

Utah

Best Case – Utah struggled with Pac 12 teams going just 2-7 in league.  Michigan is on par with any number of Pac 12 teams that got the better of the Utes.  4-0

Worst Case – Utah was an interesting story last year knocking off Stanford to get to 4-2 before the bottom fell out.  The schedule got tougher and then Travis Wilson suffered what appeared to be a career ending injury.  He’s back though and cleared to play medically (an off season arrest could hamper that return though).  Utah has the ability to knock off good teams, they proved that last year.  A nightmare for Michigan could let Utah slip by.  2-2

Prediction – Much like Notre Dame too many unknowns about Utah for me to pick them, especially in the Big House.  W, 35-24, 4-0

 

Minnesota

Best Case – Broken record alert, Minnesota has a ton of unknowns – especially at quarterback.  5-0

Worst Case – Minnesota finds its qb solution and Michigan’s offense isn’t very good…there are ways to kid yourself into an upset but I’m not a kid.  3-2

Prediction – Michigan isn’t Alabama but they are a sure thing compared to a mid-level Big Ten team without a quarterback.  W, 31-10, 5-0 (1-0)

 

At Rutgers

Best Case – Upward mobility alert, Michigan cracks the top 10 with a dominating performance.  6-0

Worst Case – Rutgers struggled with AAC teams last year, even losing by double figures to Connecticut.  4-2

Prediction – Rutgers might not be as dreadful as Illinois or Purdue but I don’t think they have the talent to be competitive against upper echelon teams either.  W, 35-14, 6-0 (2-0)

 

Penn State

Best Case – PSU was up and down a year ago and now going through a coaching change.  Feast time baby!  7-0

Worst Case – This has turned into a pretty good rivalry game and if last year’s 4 OT thriller that PSU won is any indication of this year’s game, sign me up.  4-3

Prediction – Not only is Christian Hackenberg going to enter his second season with his second coach, he also loses outstanding wideout Allen Robinson.  They should have everything figured out by the seventh game of the season but sitting here in late July it is difficult to overlook the questions with the Nittany Lions.  W, 31-28, 7-0 (3-0)

 

At Michigan State

Best Case – Introducing your top 5 Wolverines!  8-0

Worst Case – Cue all the big bro / little bro jokes yadda yadda yadda.  4-4

Prediction – MSU returns a lot of offensive talent and Mark Dantonio is the best defensive coach in the league (and maybe the best overall).  I love this Spartan team, especially defending home field in what has become a nasty environment for road teams.  L, 24-21, 7-1 (3-1)

 

Indiana

Best Case – The first in a trio of very winnable games before The Game.  9-0

Worst Case – Michigan’s off season questions don’t really get answered and injuries start to take their toll.  Meanwhile Indiana’s high octane offense finally has a decent defense to back them up.  Defining league win for Kevin Wilson.  4-5

Prediction – The timing of this one is interesting.  Knocking off a good MSU team could lead to a hangover and losing to MSU would lead to a pissed off team.  Obviously Indiana is hoping for the hangover scenario.  Talent to talent though, Michigan has the edge.  Indiana’s great scoring potential keeps it close though.  W, 38-31, 8-1 (4-1)

 

At Northwestern

Best Case – A massive upset outside the Big Ten gets Michigan to #2 in the land.  10-0

Worst Case – Even in a bounce back season for Northwestern, I still think Michigan has enough talent to get the victory.  5-5

Prediction – This was a bonkers triple OT game a year ago that Michigan managed to win.  This was in the middle of Michigan’s funk while banged up NU was desperate to cling to slim bowl hopes.  I think the talent tips towards Michigan – the depth certainly does – and Ryan Field isn’t exactly the toughest of venues.  W, 42-38, 9-1 (5-1)

 

Maryland

Best Case – The talent gap from middling ACC team to Big Team contender is too much for a pesky Terps team.  11-0

Worst Case – A pesky team indeed, especially if C.J. Brown can play the electrifying game he had in the Terp’s hot start a season ago.  5-6

Prediction – A full strength Maryland team is capable of an upset, assuming they stay healthy and improve defensively I think they can put a major scare into Michigan but the edge of home field is too big to overlook.  W, 24-21, 10-1 (6-1)

 

At Ohio State

Best Case – The Alabama touch gets them to #1 in the nation and knock off the hated rival.  12-0

Worst Case – Much like Iowa’s 2012 campaign where a new offensive coordinator caused the O to take a while to get up to speed, Michigan suffers a similar fate and limps to a forgettable season, 5-7

Prediction – I hate picking Ohio State but Devin Smith and Braxton Miller create such a good one-two punch.  The recruiting OSU enjoys is second to none in the league and Urban Meyer (barf) is a proven winner.  I know last year’s game was close and rivalries always bring out the best but I think OSU finds a way to get past Michigan yet again.  L, 38-35, 10-2 (6-2)

 

Final Notes

Considering their crossover games are Northwestern and Minnesota, you have to be excited at the potential if you are Michigan.  Even if OSU, MSU, Notre Dame and Penn State get the better of you, that is still a solid eight win campaign.  The only way I see them dropping below that is thanks to the worst case scenario which features Michigan’s offense never developing and Utah, Indiana and Maryland all exceeding expectations.  Those are a lot of stars to align to prevent Michigan from hitting the 8-9 plateau.