Best Case / Worst Case / Prediction – Minnesota

The Gophers’ six win 2012 sparked a lot of football fever in the twin cities but I wasn’t fully convinced.  Questions like who were the offensive playmakers, who would be under center as well as concerns of defensive depth had me less optimistic for 2013.  As I predicted, the results were mixed.  When you break down the 8 win campaign you notice two things.  The first is the non-con record is a joke that Glen Mason would be proud of and the second is this team had the stars align in league.

For part one, when UNLV is your best non-conference win, you have a problem.  FCS, pathetic New Mexico State and woeful San Jose State prove nothing.  As for the league play, they were smoked 65-20 combined by Iowa and Michigan to start the season and were physically punished by Wisconsin and Michigan State en route to a 34-10 combined loss for those two games.  The four winners in a row?  Reeling Northwestern, banged up Nebraska, 3 point win against Indiana and mediocre Penn State.  For their league slate they lost the games they should have and won, with some luck, all the games they had a chance in.  That’s not success, that’s mediocrity.

The biggest source of the mediocrity is lack of solid qb play and a subpar defense.  Even before former starter Philip Nelson’s transferring and MMA act in the off season, I had this as a weakness.  Sure he was experienced, but that was his only positive.  Minnesota now has a gaping hole at the most important position now.  David Cobb is a good back, but this team reeks of one-dimensionality now, not that the 118th passing attack from last year prevented them becoming 1-d.  I don’t see how you succeed being that one-sided two years in a row.

As for the defense top 25 sounds pretty good.  They averaged just 22.2 points allowed a game.  This is grossly misleading though.  Seven times they held teams below 22 points but three times they lost.  Two of the other four were FCS Western Illinois and struggling New Mexico State.

In the losses, the defense prevented points but couldn’t help the offense as they would give up long drives, such as the Wisconsin game where the Badgers bled the clock with that rushing attack.  Wisconsin held the ball for 11 more minutes and had scoring drives of 11 minutes and 8 minutes.  They could not get off the field when it the competition stiffened.  They also looked good against MSU but that was the last game of the year in frigid weather.  The fact that their two best performances came at the end of the year in freezing temperatures doesn’t impress me much (thank you Shania Twain).

Between being a paper contender a year ago that now looks worse thanks to offensive upheaval, I expect Minnesota’s rise as a program under Jerry Kill to stall in 2014.

 

2014 Schedule

 

Eastern Illinois

Best Case – EIU is FCS, Gophers get it done…Right?  1-0

Worst Case – Eastern went 1-1 against FBS teams last season, crushing SDSU and dropping one to Northern Illinois by just 4.  Not to mention EIU went 12-1 and deep in the tournament.  Upset alert.  0-1

Prediction – EIU is one of those FCS level teams we hear a lot about (it helps that Tony Romo went there) and they had a solid season a year ago.  What’s strange is as recently as 2011 they went just 2-9.  It seems like they are more a peak and valley program a la Auburn than a consistent year-in, year-out club.  Sill, they can’t have graduated everyone from that team and should make for a pesky opener.  Minnesota gets it done, but it won’t be a thing of beauty.  W, 21-17, 1-0

 

Middle Tennessee State

Best Case – Much like Minnesota, the Blue Raiders will also have a new qb under center.  2-0

Worst Case – Much like Minnesota, the Blue Raiders won 8 games a season ago but lost the bowl.  This isn’t as much a dog as people think.  0-2

Prediction – Edge in talent and it is at home.  It might not be one you tell your grandkids about but a win is a win.  W, 20-10, 2-0

 

At TCU

Best Case – TCU has a little controversy surrounding their qb position, maybe it gets worse as practice goes on while Minnesota gets settled.  Huge road win.  3-0

Worst Case – The offensive concerns of the first two games get blown wide open against defensive minded Gary Patterson as the Horned Frogs drop Minnesota.  0-3

Prediction – After filling in nicely in 2012 Trevone Boykin suddenly had to split time with Casey Pachall.  When you have two quarterbacks you really have none.  As a result TCU limped to a stunning 4-8 season.  Compounding things was the defense slid to a very strange 54th place finish.  Boykin is back though and he has some weapons with B.J. Catalon and Josh Doctson.  I also expect the defense to be improved with Patterson.  I’m leaning purple.  L, 24-21, 2-1

 

San Jose State

Best Case – Minnesota takes advantage of David Fales heading to the NFL and takes care of short handed SJSU.  4-0

Worst Case – When you take a 4000 yard passer away from a 6-6 team, you have to expect that team to struggle.  Minnesota picks up their first win of the year.  1-3

Prediction – After Colorado poached the coach 2013 was a very up and down 6-6 year and the glue was David Fales.  Without his incredible arm, I’m very worried about the Spartans’ chances this year.  W, 31-14, 3-1

 

At Michigan

Best Case – Michigan had quite the slump to end last year but their high point was dominating Minnesota 42-13.  Even if the Wolverines take a step back and Minnesota takes a step forward, I’m not sure there is a 30 point swing.  Gophers’ undefeated streak ends in Ann Arbor.  4-1

Worst Case – Minnesota’s offense continues to falter and in front of a bazillion people that makes for a long day.  1-4

Prediction – With such an unknown quantity under center for the Gophers and an experienced Devin Gardner on the other side, the scales at QB favor Michigan.  Factor in a home game and I like the Wolverines in a relatively easy win.  L, 31-10, 3-2 (0-1)

 

Northwestern

Best Case – Minnesota won this game a year ago.  Sure injuries happen but bad luck is part of the game.  You play who you play.  5-1

Worst Case – A healthy Wildcat team returns to the 2012 form that had everyone excited coming into last season.  1-5

Prediction – Trevor Siemian isn’t a great quarterback but he has grown into a decent starter and has plenty of experience.  Even better for him is plenty of weapons surround him.  NU has a big edge in offensive upside.  Cats get by Goldy.  L, 28-21, 3-3 (0-2)

 

Purdue

Best Case – Purdue is as bad as last year.  Blowout!  6-1

Worst Case – Year two of the new administration in West Lafayette has shown improvements, meanwhile UM is averaging a woeful 14 points a game behind a slew of unproven quarterbacks.  1-6

Prediction – Look, until Purdue proves they can win (they had competitive games but very few wins) I am going to pick against them.  The rebuild will be a several year endeavor for the trains.  W, 35-14, 4-3 (1-2)

 

At Illinois

Best Case – Speaking of bad teams, Illinois was god awful a season ago too.  7-1

Worst Case – Illinois is the darling of the league putting together the type of season Minnesota had last year where everything fell into place.  Despite two bowl appearances, some chatter about coach Kill’s tenure crops up after yet another loss.  1-7

Prediction – Minnesota is a full two years ahead Illinois in the rebuilding process.  UM may not have a clear quarterback to start the year but they figure to be a lot more talented (and deeper) than a club like Illinois.  W, 28-17, 5-3 (2-2)

 

Iowa

Best Case – Since 2000, Iowa leads 10-4 in the rivalry including a humiliating eight straight quarters of scoreless play in 08-09.  Hawks have won the last two by a combined 54-20.  For the most part, including during the Kill administration, Iowa has been more talented and better coached.  If Iowa is expected to contend in the west like many are predicting, they need to find ways to win the toss-up games like this trip to Minneapolis.  They find a way to spoil their rival’s best case season.  7-2

Worst Case – During the 1981 season Minnesota capped an insane 17-4-1 run against Iowa and had run the head-to-head record to 51-22-2 in their favor.  Since then Iowa has gone 22-10.  Their success against Minnesota isn’t a fluke over the last few seasons but over 30 years now of solid play against Minnesota.  1-8

Prediction – I was very pessimistic about Iowa’s 2013 chances but I still picked them to beat Minnesota last off season.  That was with the Gopher’s being the upstart of the league.  Now with all the turmoil in Minneapolis at the most important job on the field you think I’m going to switch?  Hell no.  L, 31-14, 5-4 (2-3)

 

Ohio State

Best Case – Very difficult to see Minnesota winning this one no matter how well their season goes in the previous 9 dates.  7-3

Worst Case – Jerry Kill’s a popular coach and well respected in coaching circles.  I think he sees another season after this one but a one-win campaign is tough to swallow.  1-9

Prediction – Too much Braxton Miller (the 10th year senior) for Minne.  L, 42-17, 5-5 (2-4)

 

At Nebraska

Best Case – Remember when Nebraska went into a funk last year and Goldy took advantage with a nice win?  Hey, strange things can happen.  Maybe Minnesota’s quarterback issue won’t really be an issue.  You see it all the time where someone comes out of nowhere to lead his team to a nice record.  The win pushes Minnesota to top 20 before the Axe game.  8-3

Worst Case – Ameer Abdullah runs left, right and center over Minnesota.  As I said at the top, I’m not sold that this was a true top 25 defense.  As Clubber would say, they were a paper champ.  1-10

Prediction – Much like Northwestern, I think Nebraska was in scramble mode once injuries affected them, especially with Martinez.  It is almost impossible to perform when midseason a chess piece is taken off the board like that.  Huskers get revenge for last year’s defeat.  L, 27-21, 5-6 (2-5)

 

At Wisconsin

Best Case – Wisconsin has won 10 straight and 17 of the last 20.  That’s a lot of history to overcome, especially when Wisconsin is fielding another really good team.  8-4

Worst Case – Well, moment of truth – are two bowls enough to save the staff after a one win year.  We shall see.  1-11

Prediction – Wisconsin is the favorite to win the west with Iowa not too far behind.  Minnesota has holes on offense and defense.  I’m not sure they can answer all of them.  L, 42-10, 5-7 (2-6)

 

Final Thoughts

So concerning the worst case – would Minnesota fire Jerry Kill?  I don’t see how they could.  Bad seasons happen and the growth over the last few years should grant him a little slack.  The good news is we won’t see that happen.  Between a manageable non-conference, Illinois and Purdue in league play and getting beatable Northwestern and rival Iowa in Minneapolis, the odds of a bowl are much better than the odds of going 1-11.  This might not be an 8 or 9 game winner but they could plod along well enough to make a bowl.  Which for a still developing program is nothing to sneeze at.