Best Case / Worst Case / Prediction – Maryland

Maryland had one of the most unusual 2013 campaigns in the nation.  They shot out of the cannon at 3-0 and then humiliated West Virginia 37-0 to go 4-0 and leap into the polls.  A 63-0 shelling at Florida State promptly dropped any Terp talk, but still at 4-1 a strong finish could have led to a great bowl.  Instead injuries derailed them and they fell all the way to 5-4 and a bowl suddenly looked iffy.  A 2-1 finish got them over the hump and into a bowl.  The last twist on the season was non-power league darling Marshall getting the better of them in the postseason.

 

Injuries happened on both sides of the ball including under center.  The dynamic C.J. Brown not only missed time but was clearly limited in the middle of the season when he tried to go.  In the final two wins he was simply magical once healthy.  He is a true dual-threat and ended as the second leading rusher but probably would have led the Terps without missing two games and the better part of another.  Maryland was undefeated (4-0) when he eclipsed 100 yards on the ground but he hit 200 passing yards six times and they went 5-1.  Impressively, these two totals overlapped three times.

 

Joining C.J. Brown will be backfield mate Brandon Ross and five, yes FIVE targets that had over 400 receiving yards a year ago.  If C.J. Brown delivers and the line can hold up against a more physical league, this unit could be the leaders in total offense.

 

Defensively, Maryland hasn’t quite lived up to Randy Edsall’s coaching pedigree.  They finished 55th last year which isn’t horrid (and the mid season slump of 137 points in three games didn’t help matters) but outside Clemson, Florida State and Duke, ACC’s offenses weren’t exactly worrying.  Naysayers will argue the Big Ten doesn’t have great offenses, but Ohio State, Indiana, Michigan State and Wisconsin will all be pretty good and Iowa, Nebraska, Michigan and Northwestern have enough talent to get it done.  If Maryland holds the line (or even improves), the Terps could scare some teams in the East.  If not…well let’s look at that:

 

2014 Schedule

James Madison

Best Case – The Dukes lost to Akron last year, that is all.  1-0

Worst Case – JMU could only muster 6-6 in the FCS a year ago.  Outside injuries, this should be a soft open.  1-0

Prediction – Over by half, rest the starters Randy!  W, 49-14, 1-0

 

At South Florida

Best Case – Remember when the Bulls were good?  Well last year they went 2-10 and scored 13.8 points per game, good for 123rd in the nation.  2-0

Worst Case – Willie Taggart was on the staff at Stanford when they started turning things around, he made Western Kentucky relevant and is now at USF.  Unfortunately for the folks in Tampa, it will take more than a year or two to right this ship.  2-0

Prediction – Even if South Florida makes a big stride this year and Maryland takes a big step back, I still think the gulf between these two clubs is pretty wide.  W, 31-14, 2-0

 

West Virginia

Best Case – This was Maryland’s high point a season ago, why not do it again?  3-0

Worst Case – WVU didn’t play defense well, didn’t play offense well and slumped all the way to 4-8 (2-7) in a terrible campaign.  Is this an outlier or is it Dana Holgorsen proving to be a bad coach?  Time will tell.  I think for a worst case, I’ll give the nod to WVU.  2-1

Prediction – I sold all my Mountaineer stock last year when they had their lackluster debut against William and Mary.  As an important side note, they lost to Kansas.  I think WVU is on the verge of a dark era with this coaching staff and this difficult travel for league games.  Maryland is all too kind to feast on WVU’s misery.  W, 35-13, 3-0

 

At Syracuse

Best Case – Syracuse took advantage of Maryland’s midseason funk to dominate them 20-3 as they made a second half push to a bowl.  This time at full strength Maryland pays them back.  4-0

Worst Case – The Orange were an interesting team starting 3-3 before a Georgia Tech thrashing (56-0) dropped them to 3-4.  Instead the woefully young team rallied for a 3-2 finish despite a tough final schedule to make a bowl, which they won.  This team expects to take a step forward and would love to reel off another against the Terps.  2-2

Prediction – Syracuse was a well coached team a year ago getting by with duct tape and spit to find a way to have a winning season.  They are a year older and a gritty team.  Traveling to the Carrier Dome is not a fun trip.  Syracuse also dropped a Big Ten team (Minnesota) in that bowl.  I think Maryland’s offense will get it done, but this feels like a coin flip.  W, 31-28, 4-0

 

At Indiana

Best Case – Indiana had a terrible defense a season ago.  This could bode well for Maryland.  5-0

Worst Case – Indiana’s talented offense finally gets joined with a competent defense as the Hoosiers get a big win.  2-3

Prediction – Much like the Orange tilt, this game has the feeling of a pick ‘em.  I think the first league road win will be a tough one as well as having two big games just before it.  I could see a let down.  L, 45-38, 4-1 (0-1)

 

Ohio State

Best Case – Last year’s train wreck against Florida State (63-0) sets the benchmark for Maryland to try and improve against top-ten teams.  5-1

Worst Case – Uh-oh, 2-4

Prediction – The big wigs in Chicago did no favors with this schedule as things get brutal.  The Indiana game really becomes big with this upcoming stretch.  L, 35-14, 4-2 (0-2)

 

Iowa

Best Case – Maryland bounces back from the first loss of the year and gets back on track.  6-1

Worst Case – Some people have picked the Big Ten title game to be Ohio State – Iowa.  Maryland has to face these clubs back-to-back, yikes.  2-5

Prediction – Maryland has more than enough talent to score but Kirk is a crafty coach and very rarely do teams put up a huge number.  Does Maryland have enough to stop an experienced offense?  Hmm, this could be a dogfight.  Iowa slips passed…barely.  L, 28-24, 4-3 (0-3)

 

At Wisconsin

Best Case – Really tough to see Maryland bottling up that running game enough to win, especially in a tough place like Madison.  6-2

Worst Case – A lot of people have picked Ohio State to face Wisconsin in the title game.  Um, okay.  2-6

Prediction – Really?  This is their schedule.  Unbelievable.  L, 42-21, 4-4 (0-4)

 

At Penn State

Best Case – Penn State is obviously still handicapped from the sanctions, the Indiana blowout reflects that.  Throw in a coaching change and you have sleeper Maryland getting the road win.  7-2

Worst Case – Two words, Happy Valley.  2-7

Prediction – Just like the Indiana, Iowa and Syracuse games I can see this one going either way.  The best I can come up with is PSU struggled a season ago with high scoring teams and Maryland could (honestly should) fit that build.  They finally get a tough win.  W, 35-28, 5-4 (1-4)

 

Michigan State

Best Case  – The defending Rose Bowl champ is expected to go toe-to-toe with OSU for the east title.  They get by a good, not great, Maryland team.  7-3

Worst Case – Hmm, all the teams expected to make a push for Indianapolis on the schedule outside Nebraska.  That’s nice.  2-8

Prediction – MSU has a chance for a very special season.  For that to happen they have to take advantage of winnable road games.  This is one of those.  L, 28-10, 5-5 (1-5)

 

At Michigan

Best Case – Is Michigan is the team that started 5-0 or the one that limped to a 2-5 finish (and lost the bowl).  If it is the second half team Maryland could get a huge road win.  8-3

Worst Case – Can Randy Edsall survive a two or three win season?  Hmm, 2-9

Prediction – These are two teams with a lot of question marks and coaches that are a bad 2014 away from entering 2015 on the hot seat.  The tie breaker for this on is the Big House.  If I let Maryland win in Beaver, then they need to drop this one.  Thems the breaks.  L, 24-21, 5-6 (1-6)

 

Rutgers

Best Case – It won’t be enough to make Indy but nine wins should get them to a pretty nice bowl and a great way to kick off life in a new league.  9-3

Worst Case – Rutgers is the new league darling and they stomp Maryland, Edsall then has a very stressful offseason and could fall victim to the carousel.  2-10

Prediction – Maryland is probably an eight win team that will underachieve not because of talent but because one murderous schedule.  They finish strong on senior day to lock up a bowl berth.  W, 35-21, 6-6 (2-6)

 

Final Thoughts

Syracuse and Indiana are basically pick ‘ems that become harder since they are road games.  Next comes the stretch of potential contenders (one on the road) followed by Happy Valley and then the two Michigan schools (another one on the road) – wow.  That is a tough schedule for any team.  Factor in the potential for injuries and suddenly it is possible to see Maryland falling all the way to 4-8.  Are they that bad?  Of course not, but this schedule isn’t wading in from the kiddie pool it is a full fledge trial by fire.  I hope for the staff’s sake the fans and boosters in D.C. realize this.  I’m looking at you Scott Van Pelt!