Best Case / Worst Case / Prediction – Indiana

The one word to describe Indiana’s 2013 campaign: chaotic.  They followed dropping 73 points on Indiana State with a loss to Navy.  They humiliate Penn State in their league opener to dropping three straight.  They destroy Illinois to get to four wins but can’t find a way to upset either Ohio State or Wisconsin to make a bowl (they would dominate Purdue to finish 5-7).  In what has come to typify the Kevin Wilson era, Indiana was 17th in scoring and 117th in points against.

Any quarterback controversy was ended with Tre Roberson’s transfer and after a very solid freshman campaign, Nate Sudfeld should be ready to shine again.  Joining him is 1000 yard back Tevin Coleman but the other big threats are gone.  Still, Sudfeld and Coleman is a pretty good starting point, especially for an offensive specialist like coach Wilson.

Defensively they lost some talent, notably leading tackler Greg Heban and sack leader Adam Replogle.  Although when you give up as many points as Indiana did last season (423!), perhaps some new faces won’t be an issue.  CC transfer David Cooper has started 24 straight games for the Hoosiers.  If this unit has any hope of turning things around Cooper will be a big reason why.

Like most seasons for Indiana under Wilson, if the defense can even get to about 65th in the nation, that offense will carry them to a bowl game.

 

2014 Schedule

 

Indiana State

Best Case – The Sycamores went 1-11 in FCS last year and the Hoosiers dropped 73 points on ‘em in last year’s match up.  Cakewalk.  1-0

Worst Case – Outside a key starter getting hurt, there is very little that could go wrong.  1-0

Prediction – It’s tempting to put a big number, but I’ll be reasonable – W, 63-28, 1-0

 

At Bowling Green

Best Case – Another rematch from last year.  IU won this one 42-10.  Expect more of the same.  2-0

Worst Case – Outside the Indiana debacle, Bowling Green was a really good team.  They won 10 games, upset Northern Illinois in the MAC title game and nearly knocked off Mississippi State in the regular season as well as coming up just short against Pitt in the bowl.  Like many schools though, their coach got poached (ACC’s Wake Forest) so they will be breaking in a new head man.  Matt Johnson is a helluva qb though.  I could see a loss. 1-1

Prediction – I know it was an outlier last year for BGSU but with the way Indiana can put up points, I think it is a matchup problem for a young coaching staff this early in the season.  The Falcons got a lot better as the season went on last year.  W, 28-17, 2-0

 

At Missouri

Best Case – Missouri went 5-7 in 2012 and looked overwhelmed in the SEC.  In 2013 they went 11-1, played their hearts out in the SEC title game and then dropped Okie State in the bowl game to finish 12-2.  So…what should we expect with such a swing?  Well there is no doubt they lost a ton of offensive talent with James Franklin, Henry Josey and L’Damian Washington all off to the NFL.  The Dorial Green-Beckham dismissal (and transfer to Oklahoma) also hurt.  The defensive also lost key pieces, including SEC sack leader Michael Sam – you may have heard of him.  Indiana could have an opening for a marquee non-conference win here.  3-0

Worst Case – Of course Gary Pinkel’s track record on offense as well as Maty Mauk being back at qb who played brilliantly while Franklin was out with injury should soften the blow.  1-2

Prediction – I know one thing, this will be a track meet.  First to 50 doesn’t seem like a stretch.  This is a classic loser scenario for Indiana.  They start out 2-0 and look like a team making strides only to gag this one away.  As a Big Ten homer I’d love to see them turn it around but until they prove they can, I’m going to pick against them.  L, 49-45, 2-1

 

Maryland

Best Case – This is the litmus test of middle of the road teams.  An Indiana win proves the Big Ten will stomp Maryland and Rutgers while a Terps win will send the league reeling.  IU steps up for us (for once).  4-0

Worst Case – This is the rocky Hoosiers we are talking about…1-3

Prediction – Maryland was an interesting team last year, starting 4-0 and getting ranked.  They would eventually push it to 5-1 before starting qb C.J. Brown went down with an injury and not look the same the rest of the year.  They would go 2-4 down the stretch before losing their bowl to sexy sleeper Marshall.  In addition to a healthy Brown (was leading rusher before injury), the feature back as well as his two wide out weapons are returning.  Throw in Randy Edsall’s gritty defense scheme (finished 55th but two outliers really affected the stats) and Maryland could be a tough out, especially for middling teams like Indiana.  With that in mind, I still think the Hoosiers’s defense will take a minimal step forward and then have their offense take them to victory in games like this.  Maryland is beatable, especially at home.  W, 45-38, 3-1 (1-0)

 

North Texas

Best Case – UNT won 9 games a year ago, has a fantastic coach in Dan McCarney and plays some devil-dog defense (finishing 8th a season ago).  Best case is Indiana avoids an obvious trap game to push the mark to 5-0 and receives plenty of votes in the polls.  5-0

Worst Case – UNT won 9 games a year ago…1-4

Prediction – I’m more worried about this game if Indiana beats Maryland since it is kind of a trap between two Big Ten games but I think they find a way against a very pesky Mean Green team to get it done.  W, 28-14, 4-1 (1-0)

 

At Iowa

Best Case – In losses against MSU, Michigan and Minnesota Indiana scored 28, 47 and 39 points respectively.  Hate to beat a dead horse but trimming their points allowed from last year’s brutal 38.8 to just 28 (which is still pretty bad) would do wonders for them.  6-0

Worst Case – Iowa is a contender and plays well at home.  IU’s defense isn’t showing any improvement as they drop another.  1-5

Prediction – The last time they played, IU came away with a 3 point win in a year where both teams would go 4-8.  The difference is Iowa was decimated by injuries and implementing a new offensive system with a terrible quarterback.  The fact is Iowa is more talented and deeper.  Unless Iowa is having a truly miserable season, this would be a very tough road win for the Hoosiers to pick up.  Lastly, Iowa has a bye week before it to prepare for Indiana’s high octane offense.  By hook or by crook, the Hawks find a way to slow Indiana down and force enough punts to claim victory.  L, 31-24, 4-2 (1-1)

Michigan State

Best Case – Cook, Langford, Hill and Tippett are all back.  Normally we question Dantonio’s offense but this year…wow.  This doesn’t look good for Indiana.  6-1

Worst Case – Duh!  1-6

Prediction – Dantonio is a defensive whiz and now he has the makings of a solid offense.  The defending Rose Bowl champs want to be in the final four tournament.  They have the horses to do it and a road trip to Bloomington shouldn’t cause too much worry.  L, 28-10, 4-3 (1-2)

 

At Michigan

Best Case – Michigan is at a crossroads this year.  They lost a lot talent and the defense just hasn’t been worthy of a Big Ten contender like Brady Hoke envisions.  Maybe the Hoosiers are enjoying a breakthrough season while UM is in the midst of a stinker.  Crazier things have happened.  7-1

Worst Case – A humiliating loss results in Wilson’s canning at the airport a la Lane Kiffin.  1-7

Prediction – Is Devin Gardner and Devin Funchess along with a lot of new faces enough offense to get passed Indiana?  Maybe.  One interesting sidebar about this game is the timing.  Indiana has a week off to prepare while Michigan will have played MSU the week before.  A Michigan win could make for nice timing for Indiana as the Wolverines could have a let down after an emotional rivalry win.  A MSU win will probably get Maize and Blue good and pissed.  In a vacuum though the same reasoning as Iowa and Missouri.  Michigan has the talent and until Indiana proves otherwise, their track record is to lose this game.  L, 38-31, 4-4 (1-3)

 

Penn State

Best Case – Indiana smoked them a year ago…8-1

Worst Case – Opening game for an interim coach in a lost year…sounds fun.  1-8

Prediction: Penn State comes in with a million question marks thanks to a new coaching staff and player departures.  Can Christian Hackenberg generate enough points?  Maybe, but last year was a decisive Indiana win.  I think they find a way to do it again.  W, 42-35, 5-4 (2-3)

 

At Rutgers

Best Case – The Hoosiers are nationally ranked and while the defense gives up 28 points a game, the offense is generating 35.  They become like the cardiac cats of the mid 90s and pull games out of thin air.  9-1

Worst Case – They are well on their way to repeating 2011’s 1-11 season.  1-9

Prediction: How good are the Knights?  That is the million dollar question.  They go as Gary Nova goes under center.  Fine, want more?  They are not that great at anything (78th in scoring, 81st in points allowed) but decent enough to go 6-7 last year after the bowl.  I’m going to go out on a limb just a hair and take the Hoosiers for locking down a bowl.  W, 42-28, 6-4 (3-3)

 

At Ohio State

Best Case – They keep it close but alas they drop a heartbreaker at the Shoe.  9-2

Worst Case – A lot to a little.  1-10

Prediction – OSU could be in the thick of a final four berth this late in the season while Indiana will be celebrating making a bowl.  Playing with house money against an over-anxious team could lead to an upset a couple times out of a hundred but don’t take that to Vegas.  L, 45-17, 6-5 (3-4)

 

Purdue

Best Case – They killed this team a year ago and after letting a Big Ten title game chance slip away they finish strong and maybe, just maybe, sniff a big time bowl once all the final polls shake out.  10-2

Worst Case – Where’s Bobby Knight?  1-11

Prediction – Purdue and Illinois are the two clear doormats of this league.  The rebuilds there will take several seasons.  Indiana is in year three under Wilson and the time is now.  They find a way to win the Old Oaken Bucket and assure themselves a decent little bowl as well as a non-losing league record.  W, 35-14, 7-5 (4-4)

 

Final Thoughts

There is a lot to be excited here with this team.  ISU, BGSU, NTU and Purdue all look like near-locks for wins if Indiana is anywhere close to being as decent as they are expected.  That means just two measly wins in the remaining games…let’s be honest, they aren’t facing a murderer’s row.  With that on the fans’ minds, it feels like anything less than a bowl costs Kevin Wilson his job.  The team is vastly improved under him but it is hard to sell fans on that when the proof is in the post-season for boosters.