Best Case / Worst Case / Prediction – Illinois

The Illini were a pleasant surprise to open 2013, going 2-1 and playing competitive ball against Washington.  It was looking like the Tim Beckman era was finally going to get rolling in year two.  Big Ten play exposed the squad though as they dropped 6 straight en route to a dismal 4-8 (1-7) campaign.  They enter 2014 with a coach boasting a woeful 6-18 (1-15) mark and questions all over the field. 

Offensively they weren’t dreadful, thanks to senior quarterback Nathan Scheelhaase but of course he is gone and now Reilly O’Toole needs to step up.  He got some playing time over the last few years and is mobile but considering coach Beckman hasn’t named him the starter shows where O’Toole stands in the rebuild.  The ground attack barely cracked the top 100 but Josh Ferguson and Donovonn Young both looked useful when they got into the open field, so the running woes are more a reflection of how lousy the line was in front.

Defensively it was a nightmare – as you would expect from a team this bad.  They gave up 35.4 ppg, 106th in the nation.  League play was even worse at nearly 41 points a game.  Wisconsin, Indiana and Ohio State all hung half a hundred on ‘em with the Buckeyes reaching 60 points against the paper-thin defense.  Since Beckman’s background is in defense, this has to be almost as worrying for his job security as his record is.  The best thing to say about this unit is they are experienced.  Perhaps the pounding they took last year will do some good this year.

 2014 Schedule

Youngstown State

Best Case – Illinois did beat their lone FCS foe from last year.  1-0

Worst Case – YSU is one of the better FCS programs and went 8-4 last year.  Oh, that FCS win Illinois had a year ago?  That was a single possession game.  0-1

Prediction – Much like the Illinois – Southern Illinois game was back and forth a last year, expect the Not-so Fighting Illini to need the starters playing all four quarters in this one to eek out a win.  W, 35-21, 1-0

Western Kentucky

Best Case – With Bobby Petrino and the very talented back Antonio Andrews gone, WKU can’t match last year’s 8 win mark that included picking off SEC joker Kentucky.  2-0

Worst Case – WKU hired from within and has the OC from a pretty good team now leading things.  If Brandon Doughty can cut down on his INTs, this should be a good team.  His favorite target, Willie McNeal, is also back.  Uh oh.  0-2

Prediction – If Western can take down Kentucky a year ago then they can take down Illinois this year.  Will they?  Probably not, but this is Illinois…they always do the wrong thing.  L, 38-28, 1-1

At Washington

Best Case – They only lost by 10 a year ago…maybe they keep it competitive again.  2-1

Worst Case – Chris Peterson seems like a classy guy but it feels like (full disclosure: without looking it up) Boise wasn’t afraid to run up the score every now and then.  0-3

Prediction – Washington lost a lot of talent from last year’s team but they also got a huge upgrade in coach.  Meanwhile Illinois lost some talent and what is returning leaves a lot to be desired.  Playing for a lame duck coach that will most assuredly be fired this season doesn’t help either.  L, 42-14, 1-2

 

Texas State

Best Case – Did you know Texas State went 6-6 last year and took down a C-USA team?  Good for them.  Illinois bounces back from the trip to Seattle.  3-1

Worst Case – Despite going 6-6, this team only went 2-5 in the Sun Belt.  That’s the opposite of what one would expect from a small conference school.  Look, in a nightmare season – all the breaks go against them and injuries mount up (which is what the worst case for this exercise is) – Illinois could drop this game.  They don’t have a qb, they don’t have a defense and they have a coach with no safety net.  This really could be the worst power-league team this season.  0-4

Prediction – Very difficult to see a team in just their second season of FBS play have the horses to run with a Big Ten team, even one as awful as Illinois.  W, 28-20, 2-2

 

At Nebraska

 

Best Case – We saw what this team was without Taylor Martinez and it wasn’t pretty.  Maybe, just maybe Illinois can run with them.  I still see them losing even in a best-case season.  3-2

Worst Case – Ameer Abdullah could be the best back in the league.  He could be running against the worst defense in the league.  0-5

Prediction – Nebraska has as many question marks as Illinois but based on recruiting and Bo Pelini’s track record, the Huskers have the edge in coaching and talent.  Playing in Lincoln also helps.  L, 38-17, 2-3 (0-1)

 

Purdue

Best Case – Illinois DOMINATED this one last year in West Lafayette coming away with the 20-16 victory.  4-2

Worst Case – Two awful teams is a coinflip.  Illinois come up short in this unwatchable dud.  0-6

Prediction – Purdue was truly dreadful but they do return a their qb and a few other pieces but in terms of the rebuild Illinois should be a year or two ahead and that should mean a win in this one.  W, 24-21, 3-3 (1-1)

 

At Wisconsin

Best Case – Illinois holds them below 56 points.  4-3

Worst Case – Illinois gives up 56 or more.  0-7

Prediction – Wisconsin returns Joel Stave and Melvin Gordon among other key pieces of a 9 win team.  They are a contender in the west for a reason and Illinois is, well, Illinois for a reason.  L, 45-21, 3-4 (1-2)

 

Minnesota

Best Case – I thought the Gophers were a paper tiger last year and grossly overrated.  They proved me right with a nondescript 4-4 league performance.  The overall win-loss was boosted by a laugher of a non-conference schedule and slipping by Northwestern during a down season, Penn State and beating cupcake Indiana.  Phillip Nelson was one of the worst starting qbs in the league and now he is not even there meaning the Gophers will be starting from scratch at that position.  They could have a slide while Illinois turns some heads.  5-3

Worst Case – On the other hand, Minnesota is coached by Jerry Kill, a man with a long pedigree of turning programs around and making them relevant.  0-8

Prediction – No matter how low I think of Minnesota, the fact is they are a more rounded team and better coached than Illinois.  Big road victory for UM if they have any hope of matching last year’s impressive win total.  L, 28-17, 3-5 (1-3)

 

At Ohio State

Best Case – OSU was known to play down the competition in previous coaching regimes, I don’t think a man who gives himself chest pain like Urban Meyer stands for that.  The Illibuck will remain in Columbus.  5-4

Worst Case – If they gave up 60 to OSU last year, how much worse can it go?  0-9

Prediction – An unwatchable game from the Shoe.  L, 52-21, 3-6 (1-4)

 

Iowa

Best Case – Iowa surprised many last year by going 8-4.  If the wheels fall off and they return to the 4-8 level of play they displayed in 2012, the Illini could be one of several teams to benefit from a softer Hawkeye team.  6-4

Worst Case – Beckman has already been canned and Iowa is living up to western competitor status that many have predicted.  0-10

Prediction – Iowa was never as bad as that 4-8 team was and I predicted 8 wins for them a season ago.  I’m not fully sold on this staff, especially Greg Davis, but Iowa has much more talent and in the head coach vs head coach battle there is a potential hall of famer (let’s see how the final decade goes for Kirk) versus someone about to get canned.  L, 35-10, 3-7 (1-5)

 

Penn State

Best Case – Interestingly enough, Illinois took this team to overtime a year ago.  Illinois gets it done at home and stuns the league with their seventh victory, guaranteeing a winning record.  7-4

Worst Case – I think we all know the worst case for this club.  0-11

Prediction – Penn State is an interesting story with Bill O’Brien’s departure and James Franklin coming from Vanderbilt.  Say what you will about his off-the-field tap dancing, Franklin’s on-field performance at a tough place to win has been pretty impressive.  Returning Christian Hackenberg from a solid freshman year and the emergence of Zach Zwinak should give the offensive-minded Franklin plenty of tools.  L, 35-14, 3-8 (1-6)

 

At Northwestern

Best Case – Illinois only lost by 3 a season ago, this time they get back at their rival (and pick up a trophy!) as well as get their 8th win.  Beckman wins COY.  8-4

Worst Case – Northwestern isn’t nearly as bad as they were a season ago when injuries and timely mistakes by the defense spoiled what could have been a great year.  0-12

Prediction – Much like Iowa wasn’t as bad as 4-8 in 2012, NU isn’t as bad as their 5-7 (1-7) record would indicate.  In addition to key injuries, NU dropped two games in OT (Iowa and Michigan in triple OT) as well as fell victim to a Hail Mary (Nebraska).  Lastly they dropped the Minnesota game by 3; however, a healthy WIldcat team would have steamrolled the Gophers.  That’s four games that very easily could have been shifted to the other side of the ledger.  Look for the ‘Cats to bounce back this year.  L, 31-17, 3-9 (1-7)

 

Final Notes

If (and that’s a big if) Beckman gets to see the end of this 3-9 (1-7) year it would bring him to 9-27 (2-22).  I was a little surprised they didn’t cut ties a season ago.  It would not have been easy since it was only two years but he is 1-15 in Big Ten games.  That is simply inexcusable.  I’ll be floored if Beckman is still donning orange and blue in 2015 since the only way for him to keep his job is making a bowl and I don’t see six wins in this schedule.  Even if they can manage to start 3-1 (which isn’t guaranteed with pesky Western Kentucky) where are the three league wins?  Outside of Purdue, they will be large underdogs for every league game.  A bowl isn’t happening and Beckman being gone before Thanksgiving is likely.